Election prediction betting has been around for a pretty long time — over 500 years! But just because you may not have heard of it, doesn’t mean it’s still not a popular pastime for many Americans.
Buy and trade shares of predictions on political outcomes, including the 2022 midterm elections, Biden administration policies, and the 2024 presidential election.
Even if your political candidate doesn’t win, you could still be a winner!
The earliest records of election prediction markets weren’t for democratic election candidates at all! Prediction markets date back to the 16th century when Italians would place bets on who would be the next pope.
Election prediction markets gained popularity from the 1700s through the 1900s — in both Britain and the U.S. when Americans, Brits, and Canadians would bet on parliamentary, congressional, and presidential elections. Election prediction market betting dates back as far as 1884.
Today, election prediction betting is just as popular as it ever was. Experts estimate that so much money is bet on presidential elections that the dollar amount wagered is more than 50% of all campaign costs!
Sort of. Election betting falls into somewhat of a legal gray area in the U.S.
Sports betting and casino betting are regulated by each state. So in what category do political elections fall? They technically fall into their own category, and election prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Currently, only two organizations have no-action letters from this commission, including PredictIt (which is operated by Victoria University of Wellington under such a letter) and the Iowa Electronic Markets (which operate under a similar no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
Kalshi (which was created by MIT students and is the first regulated financial exchange dedicated to trading event contracts) is the only online platform legally recognized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
These online platforms work similarly to free sweeps casinos, allowing players to purchase virtual currency (in this case shares or contracts) instead of betting real money.
You must be at least 18 years old to purchase shares and live in the U.S. You may not trade shares if you have access to non-public material or have the ability to influence the market’s outcome.
Two of the three prediction betting platforms focus on election prediction betting and one platform (Kalshi) allows users to bet on pretty much any prediction market category (including elections).
Some of the most popular election prediction betting markets include:
The Biden administration has been a hot topic on prediction market betting platforms! With the senate so tightly divided, it’s not easy to guess who Biden will get approved for his administration.
With so many bills being negotiated right now, bets on whether the Biden admin will get their agenda items passed are also a hot topic on prediction market betting platforms.
While everyone is a little nervous for the 2022 election cycle (are we really ready for the news circus just yet?!), placing futures bets on the outcomes of U.S. elections is one way to quell our anxiety.
The 2021 elections may have passed us by (somewhat quietly), but the 2022 midterms are sure to be exciting for bettors.
Some of the hottest trends on election prediction markets’ platforms include the following in the 2022 election cycle:
Okay, we’re definitely not ready for the 2024 presidential election cycle. But placing futures bets on who will run for president, who will be eliminated from the race first, and who will ultimately win the election will help inject a little fun into the whole cycle.
Yes, there are other countries (other than the U.S.) with their own election cycles as well. While we may forget from time to time that the U.S. elections aren’t the only ones that matter, there are world election predictions markets you may bet on.
Other world political markets may include trade deals and agreements, Brexit negotiations, and world finance.
The only events that are illegal to bet on include war, terrorism, and assassinations — legally allowing bettors to do so could increase crimes associated with these events.
You may also not bet on gaming or sports betting, as these markets are overseen by state gambling commissions.
The only political prediction market platforms in the U.S. legally allowed to sell shares include Kalshi, PredictIT, and the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Kalshi is an MIT startup that allows you to bet on pretty much anything (the word Kashi means ‘everything’ in Arabic). Kalshi is the first site to be regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and operate without a no-action letter.
In addition to political markets, prediction markets include:
One of the few online prediction betting platforms that specialize in political predictions, PredictIT is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.
Purchase shares of true or false questions or statements, and make money for correctly predicting outcomes of political races.
PredictIT has been called, “probably one of the most exciting engines I've come across in terms of political opinion," by political pundit James Carville.
Prediction markets include the following:
One of the smaller election prediction betting sites is owned and operated by the University of Iowa. The Iowa Electronic Markets runs similarly to PredictIT and allows users to purchase and trade shares of yes or no political statements.
Prediction markets include the following:
Check back on OddsSeeker’s Prediction Markets page to get the latest updates on prediction market promo codes!
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