Political Betting June 2023
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If you haven’t heard of political betting, you’re not alone! Despite the obscurity of betting on politics, it doesn’t mean that it hasn’t been around for a long time — over 500 years to be exact.
Political betting may be new to many Americans, but it’s been a popular pastime for centuries.
Buy and share trades of predictions on the outcomes of bills, laws, budget reconciliation, and more. Just because the bill you were rooting for was gutted doesn’t mean that you’ll lose your bet, too.
Is Political Betting Legal?
Somewhat. Political betting falls into a legal gray area in the U.S.
The laws for sports betting and casino gambling are pretty clear and determined by each state and regulated by state gambling control boards. But who regulates political betting (or betting on pretty much anything else for that matter) in the U.S.?
Political betting technically falls into its own category and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is run by the federal government.
The only company in the U.S. that is legally recognized by the CFTC at the moment is Kalshi, an MIT startup. This platform specializes in not just political betting but trading shares (or as they call them on Kalshi’s site, contracts) of futures bets.
Two companies operate under no-action letters from the commission, including PredictIt (which is operated by Victoria University of Wellington under such a letter) and the Iowa Electronic Markets (which operate under a similar no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
These types of platforms operate similarly to free sweeps casinos (which is partially why they are legal on a federal level instead of being overseen by state gambling commissions). Players purchase virtual currency (in this case shares or contracts instead of sweeps or gold coins).
The minimum age to play is 18 years old. Players must also live in the U.S. and may not participate if they have inside information about a market or have the ability to affect the outcome of the market.
Political Betting Vs Election Betting
There are several types of political betting. The main one is obviously betting on the outcome of elections (especially presidential, congressional, and senate elections).
But most of the markets on political betting sites are more focused on the outcomes of bills, the federal budget, and other short-term futures bets.
While we only elect politicians once a year at the most (every four years for presidential elections, every two years for congressional elections, and annually for local elections), there are so many bills being passed and legislature signed into law each year that we have a neverending supply of political events to bet on!
Types of Political Betting Markets
Both PredictIT and the Iowa Markets focus solely on political betting, whereas Kalshi allows you to bet on any market under the sun — including politics.
Some of the most popular political betting markets include:
- Presidential administrations
- Bills
- Laws
- Federal and local budgets
- World markets
- Presidential Administration Prediction Market
Presidential administrations are a hot topic in online betting markets!
Because it takes a long time for administration candidates to be vetted and approved by Congress, it seems like politicians are constantly being added to an administration. During some presidencies, such as Trump’s, members of the presidential administration seemed to turn over almost daily.
Many online political betting platforms sell shares and contracts of yes or no statements of outcomes of who will be appointed to political administrations.
Debt Limit
When the government reaches its cap for spending, Congress must approve the increase of the debt ceiling before borrowing any more money. Many online political betting platforms allow you to bet on whether the debt limit will be increased or if Congress will vote against this.
Bills and Laws
Bills are created by politicians on federal, state, and local levels monthly. Whether these bills will be signed into law is another question. Political betting sites allow you to bet on upcoming bills and laws.
Reconciliation
Budget reconciliation ends up on the table throughout the year, too. It essentially allows bills to pass much faster than if Congress were to vote on each one.
World Markets
Of course, it’s not just U.S. politics you can bet on! Many of us in the U.S. forget about world politics, but just like anything else in this world — you can bet on world politics, too.
Some online political betting platforms allow you to buy shares of yes or no statements that may include trade deals, world finance, and political negotiations.
In fact, the only markets that are illegal to be on include war, terrorism, and assassinations.
2023 Election Predictions
Who will be voted into congress and the senate in 2023? Will the Dems lose narrow control of the senate? Or will states that were once red turn purple or blue?
Best Political Betting Sites
If you want to bet on politics legally in the U.S., you must do so at Kalshi, PredictIT, or the Iowa Electronic Markets, the only legal political betting sites.
Kalshi
Kalshi is the first prediction betting site to be regulated by the CFTC and operate without a no-action letter.
In addition to political betting markets, prediction markets include:
- Climate & Weather
- COVID-19
- Economics
- Economy
- Entertainment
- Housing
- Inflation
- Science & Technology
- Transportation
- World events
PredictIT
PredictIT operates under a no-action letter from the CFTC. Users may purchase shares of true or false statements for political betting and election markets only.
PredictIT has been called, “probably one of the most exciting engines I've come across in terms of political opinion," by political pundit James Carville.
Prediction markets include the following:
- Presidential administrations
- Bills
- Laws
- Federal and local budgets
- World markets
- And more!
Iowa Electronic Markets
The Iowa Electronic Markets is run by Iowa State University and allows bettors to purchase and trade shares of yes or no statements for the U.S. and French presidential elections.
Prediction markets include:
- 2023 French Presidential Election Markets
- 2023 U.S. Congressional Control Markets
- Economic Indicator Markets (no economic indicator markets are open at this time)
- Classroom Markets (Academic traders only)
Prediction Market Promo Codes
Check back on OddsSeeker’s Prediction Markets page to get the latest updates on prediction market promo codes! Currently, OddsSeeker readers get a $55 deposit match at PredictIT. Use the code ODDSSEEKER to claim this welcome bonus!
About the author
Frank Weber is a sports & gaming writer with a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism and years of experience in the gambling world. He loves baseball, football, basketball, soccer, and the UFC - he even collects sports cards and memorabilia! In his free time, you could find Frank either out at a concert with friends, or at home sweating out all his (soon to be won) bets!