Prediction Markets June 2023
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All Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets (similar in some ways to the stock market) where bettors buy and trade shares to determine the outcome of future events.
Also referred to as betting, decision, idea, information, or futures markets, these markets pose yes or no questions or statements, and bettors may purchase shares of either yes or no outcomes of these questions or statements.
Examples of questions posed by prediction markets may include, Biden will win the 2024 election, 2021 will be the warmest year on record, or Britain will vote to leave the European Union in 2020.
Since these are futures bets, buyers may purchase shares of one outcome and trade those shares later if they believe the outcome will change.
History of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have been around since the 16th century.
The earliest record of betting markets dates back to the results of the 1503 papal conclave (who would be the next pope). In the 18th to 20th centuries, political betting was popular in Britain, and records show that these types of bets were often placed on expected outcomes of Parliamentary elections.
Records also show that there election betting was happening in the U.S. as far back as 1884 for both presidential and congressional winners.
It’s estimated that the amount of money bet on each presidential election equates to more than 50% of campaign costs.
Are Prediction Markets Legal?
Sort of. Online gambling is illegal on a federal level in the U.S., making such practices difficult for many would-be online prediction platforms.
Many predictions markets operate similarly to free sweeps casinos and sportsbooks, offering players the ability to purchase and play with virtual currency instead of betting real money.
Currently, the only online prediction markets websites that may legally operate in the U.S. are the Iowa Electronic Markets (which operate under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), PredictIt (which is operated by Victoria University of Wellington under a similar letter), and Kalshi (which was created by MIT students and is the first regulated financial exchange dedicated to trading event contracts).
Types of Prediction Betting Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission allows prediction betting on the following categories:
- Climate & Weather
- COVID-19
- Economics
- Economy
- Entertainment
- Housing
- Inflation
- Politics
- Science & Technology
- Transportation
- World
- And more!
Currently, there are a few categories banned by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and prediction market platforms (or any person or platform for that matter) are barred from selling shares on events related to war, terrorism, assassinations, and gaming.
Obviously, selling futures shares in categories such as war, terrorism, and assassinations may lead to an influx of crimes associated with these three categories (if someone had a financial interest in the assassination of a world leader, it could be incentive to commit such a crime).
Gaming is regulated separately under state and federal sports betting and casino laws.
Participants must be at least 18 years of age and live in the U.S. to buy shares at most online prediction market websites. Trading is also prohibited if you have access to material non-public information or have the ability to influence the market's outcome.
How Prediction Markets Work
Ready to get started buying shares? Most online prediction market websites recommend the following steps: familiarize yourself with markets, stay up to date on current events, purchase shares, sell shares if you change your mind.
Familiarize Yourself With Markets
Familiarize yourself with the different markets offered on each prediction market website’s platform. The more you know about a particular market, the more informed your buying and trading decisions will be.
Stay Up to Date on Current Events
Each online prediction website offers resources so you can stay up to date on current events and make better buying and trading choices.
Purchase/Trade Shares
Purchase and trade prediction market shares!
Prediction Market Sites
A few of the most popular online prediction market sites (actually, the only ones available in the U.S. as of right now!) include Kalshi, PredictIT, and the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Kalshi
An MIT startup, Kalshi is a website that allows you to bet on almost anything. In fact, the word kalshi itself translates to ‘everything’ in Arabic.
This site is the first of its kind to be regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Prediction markets include the following:
- Climate & Weather
- COVID-19
- Economics
- Economy
- Entertainment
- Housing
- Inflation
- Politics
- Science & Technology
- Transportation
- World
Bet on the outcome of yes and no statements or questions by purchasing contracts (the platform’s term for shares) that validate these statements.
Examples of such statements might include:
- “What will the high be in New York City on Friday?”
- “What will October’s inflation be?”
- “Will universal pre-K be made available before November 8, 2021?”
PredictIT
Owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, PredictIT is an online political prediction market. Purchase shares of true or false questions or statements, and make money for correctly predicting outcomes of political races.
PredictIT has been touted, “probably one of the most exciting engines I've come across in terms of political opinion," by pundit James Carville.
Prediction markets include the following:
- Presidential prediction
- Biden administration
- U.S. Elections
- Senate elections
- Congressional elections
- State elections
- Local elections
- World markets
- And more!
Bet on the outcome of yes and no statements or questions by purchasing shares that validate these statements.
Examples of such statements might include:
- “House yeas for reconciliation by 11/19?”
- “Who will be the speaker in the next congress?”
- “German chancellor on 12/31?”
Iowa Electronic Markets
Owned and operated by the University of Iowa, the Iowa Electronic Markets allow you to trade shares of yes or no political statements and economic indicator markets.
Some markets (such as classroom markets) are only open to academic traders and are not open to the public.
Prediction markets include the following:
- 2022 French Presidential Election Markets
- 2022 U.S. Congressional Control Markets
- Economic Indicator Markets (no economic indicator markets are open at this time)
- Classroom Markets (Academic traders only)
Prediction Market Promo Codes
Check back on OddsSeeker’s Prediction Markets page to get the latest updates on prediction market promo codes!
About the author
Frank Weber is a sports & gaming writer with a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism and years of experience in the gambling world. He loves baseball, football, basketball, soccer, and the UFC - he even collects sports cards and memorabilia! In his free time, you could find Frank either out at a concert with friends, or at home sweating out all his (soon to be won) bets!