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Why we like Kalshi
Buy contracts on markets in almost any category, make educated guesses on the outcomes of yes or no statements to win, Have fun learning new skills and making predictions.
Kalshi is a website that allows you to bet on almost anything. In fact, the word kalshi itself translates to ‘everything’ in Arabic.
An MIT startup, Kalshi received a round of funding thanks to its participation in the Y Combinator’s Winter 2019 round.
Regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi offers a safe and secure platform for betting on the outcome of pretty much any event. Instead of ‘bets’, users may purchase contracts (similar to purchasing stocks) that validate yes or no statements or questions.
How Does Kalshi Work?
Trading contracts on Kalshi is similar to trading stocks.
Each contract is a prediction of what will happen in the future (similar to a futures wager in sports betting). Predict how climate change will manifest itself (will 2021 be the hottest year on record?), the economy (will income taxes on the highest income tax bracket increase by the end of 2021?), politics (how big will the reconciliation bill be?), and more.
The idea is to buy low (when other people haven’t valued the contract highly) and sell high (when others start catching on to the actual outcomes).
Browse Kalshi Markets
Many Kalshi members start out by browsing contracts and markets on Kalshi’s website.
Since there are so many markets to choose from (Kalshi doesn’t stick to just one market like many other prediction sites), you may want to familiarize yourself with each market. If you’re already a super fan of a current events topic (climate change, politics, the economy, etc.), you may want to stick to the market you’re most familiar with.
According to Kalshi: “Trading is prohibited if you have access to material non-public information or have the ability to influence the market's outcome.”
Each market features its contracts (or questions or statements on which you may purchase contracts for or against). Here, you’ll find the prices for buying a contract for or against a statement. You’ll also find cases made for each yes or no statement. You’ll also find the prices for and against each statement.
Just some of the prediction markets on Kalshi include the following:
- Climate & Weather
- Science & Technology
Read Kalshi Event Contracts
Before deciding on one contract, you’ll want to read through the fine print on several different contracts.
Each contract lists its own rules, start date, close date, settlement source, and settlement date for its markets.
This information is the fine print details of each contract. Most of the questions or statements in event contracts may seem like broad, sweeping statements that could possibly be up for debate. This is why Kalshi includes such detailed settlement sources — so the answers may not be contested.
If you understand the settlement details, you should have a better grasp of the rules of each contract.
Review Price, Volume & Spread
Other pertinent information to each contract is its price, volume, and spread — and all of this information can be found in each contract.
Each yes or no statement is priced according to its predicted outcome.
For example, the question, “Will 2021 be the hottest year on record?” would garner a yes or no outcome. If you bet ‘yes’, the price might be $0.07; if you bet no, the price might be $0.93 (again, these are just for example and not actual estimates). Correct contracts pay out $1.
The more others trade one contract, the lower the price may be on each yes or no bet.
If you believe your original contract purchase will not yield a payout anymore, you may trade your contract. You’ll lose less money on a higher volume contract (the higher the volume, the lower the price).
Similar to spreads in sports betting, the spread will show you the value of the price of each contract. If the spread is lower, you’ll get better prices and be able to close out your position easier; lower spreads may lead to lower-risk contracts and markets.
The entire point of Kashi is to have fun! Betting on outcomes of otherwise stressful events (climate change, politics, etc.) can infuse these events with a little bit of friendly competition.
You may also glean some interesting new research skills. How accurately can you predict the weather in Nepal on Tuesday? Can you guess how politicians will vote on different issues, using only your savvy research resources?
While this platform may seem intimidating at first, it was created for entertainment purposes. You should try to spend your time on this website having fun and focusing on events and topics that interest you.
The more creative you get with your research, the more likely you are to be an educated trader (and the more likely you are to have fun!).
Assess the Risk
As with the buying and selling of any type of shares (as well as with gambling in general), there are risks involved.
Since Kalshi isn’t a gambling or gaming platform, it doesn’t provide information on responsible gambling and betting. Don’t purchase or trade shares if you can’t afford the risk of losing that amount of money.
Is Kalshi Legit?
Yes! Kalshi is totally legit. You must sign up for an account with your email and personal information (or import your information from social media platforms).
You must be at least 18 years of age to sign up for an account.
Kalshi is the only financial exchange for event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the platform is fully regulated in the U.S. It offers secure trades, and funds are managed by a regulated clearinghouse.
Kalshi Promo Code
Most online betting and share selling websites and apps offer some type of welcome bonus or new member promo code.
Right now, Kalshi isn’t offering such codes. But when it does offer them, you’ll be one of the first to know. Check back on OddsSeeker regularly to find the updated bonus, welcome, and promo codes for the hottest prediction sites in town.
Kalshi currently only operates online — and doesn’t offer its own app. To buy and sell contracts, you must create an account online