2022 Midterm Election Betting Odds And More
As we’ve reached the day after Election Day 2021, and reached just a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, a lot of people’s minds are on the midterms, and in particular, what it means for representatives. Will Democrats be able to retain their current control of The House, or has the GOP set in motion a major upset?
With a dicey NJ gubernatorial race and Virginia flipping red in favor of governor-elect Glenn Youngkin (see this Associated Press story for more info on both), a lot of analysts view these Election Day revelations as ominous, troubling signs for the governing party’s midterm election prospects.
No matter how you feel in regards to what these signs bode, their ripple effects are certainly being felt across various betting markets. It’s important to stress that a lot can change in a year and five days before the midterm elections, when voters across the country will gear up to make their voices heard at the polls on November 8th, 2022.
International Election Betting Futures (Via PredictIt)
Right now, if you search “2022” on PredictIt, you’ll currently see over 90 active election betting markets relating to pivotal electoral races set to occur next year, mostly domestic races, but also some key foreign elections too. If you’re interested in wagering on the latter category, then you may want to keep an eye on four key presidential races next year, occurring in France, Colombia, Brazil, and the Philippines.
Retired Filipino boxer Manny Pacquaio is seeming to have a rocky start to his presidential bid, as PredictIt has his betting shares valued at only 26 cents, with his challenger Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos’ shares valued almost double at 40 cents. Incumbent French prime minister Emmanuel Macron appears to have strong reelection winning odds, with his shares being valued at 70 cents, 58 cents over his current leading challenger, controversial far-right pundit Eric Zemmour.
Over in Brazil, progressive challenger Lula Da Silva has a strong odds lead over the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro’s approval has tanked amid his own controversial far-right advocacy, from numerous bigoted statements, to enabling rampant rainforest fires in the Amazon, to his unpopular handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been deemed so roundly unpopular that the Brazilian senate may force him to face 11 criminal charges over it.
So it makes sense that his betting shares would be valued at a mere quarter, while Lula’s are on the verge of three quarters (65 cents, respectively). Over in Colombia, democratic socialist incumbent Gustavo Petro leads 44 cents, 18 cents over his centrist challenger Sergio Fajardo. As far as notable domestic elections, here are some betting races to watch in our neck of the woods.
U.S. Midterm Election Betting Futures
Unfortunately for House Democrats, oddsmakers appear to be heeding the potentially ominous signs for them wrought by this past Election Day. On PredictIt, you’ll find numerous GOP gains on pivotal midterm questions like:
- Who will control the Senate after 2022? (67 cents R, 32 cents D)
- Which party will win the House in 2022? (80 cents R, 19 cents D)
- The overall balance of power after the 2022 election? (68 cents R, 18 cents D)
- How many senators will be re-elected in 2022? (25 cents on 23 or fewer, 19 cents on 25 or more)
You can see more odds if you check out Kalshi election betting markets. Moreover, even in spite of their exceedingly controversial records, it seems that support among the core voter bases of officials like Texas Governor Gregg Abbott and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has shown little signs of waning. Greene is favored 77 cents to be re-elected to the House in 2022 (contrasted by 23 cents saying “no”), while Abbott is favored 79 cents to retain his gubernatorial seat in 2022.
That said, there are still low odds on former President Donald Trump filing for a presidential bid before 2023 (41 cents yes, 59 cents no), and even lower odds on his former VP Mike Pence doing the same (11 cents yes, 89 cents no). That may not be indicative of a partisan trend though, as current VP Kamala Harris is only favored 11 cents to announce a bid before 2023.
Curiously, the site doesn’t show an open market for current President Biden doing so, though that may be because oddsmakers presume him as the most likely Democratic nominee given that he’s the incumbent. However, you can find other betting markets specific to him here, watch other contentious local midterm races of interest on our aforementioned 2022 link, and sign up for our mailing list to have more timely betting updates delivered directly to your inbox.