2022 Senate Predictions: Favorites for Midterm Elections
While the 2022 midterm election is shy of a year away, the election cycle is just beginning. We’re all waiting with bated breath to see — possibly most importantly — who will be in control of the Senate?
Of course, Senate seats aren’t the only ones on the line in 2022. This upcoming year will see several gubernatorial elections as well as Congressional elections - OddsSeeker will be covering all of the election betting predictions markets!
2022 Senate Odds: Overall Control
On November 17, 2021, the cost of shares for the GOP taking control of the Senate in 2022 rose to $0.70. The cost of shares for the Democrats remaining in control was $0.32.
2021 Election Takeaways
While off-season elections aren’t a clear indicator of the outcome of midterm and presidential elections, they may provide some insight into who is expected to reign victorious in the upcoming elections.
There were some clear GOP wins in 2021, and Biden’s support of democratic candidates may have actually helped Republicans in those states. But will Biden’s approval increase by the midterms? And will more Democrats head to the polls next year?
2021 GOP Wins
In 2020, the Democrats narrowly gained slim control over the Senate (the House had already been secured in 2018). While it’s not likely that Democrats will gain that much more control in the Senate in 2022, the party is hoping to maintain the seats it has secured — and possibly add at least two more to prevent stalwarts by its own party.
If 2021 is an indicator of how well Democrats will fare in the 2022 race, the odds aren’t in their favor.
Republicans won the Virginia gubernatorial race, bringing light to the growing popularity of the GOP within the state. Though, off-year elections are notorious for having low voter turnout, states where Republicans dominated saw quite high voter turnouts this year.
Odds for the GOP to claim control of the Senate were as high as $0.70 in the past week.
While many analysts agree that the GOP is a strong favorite tow in the midterm election, there’s still plenty of time between now and November 2022 for Democrats to turn the ship around.
The GOP only needs to keep its current Senate seats and gain one seat to regain control. If the results in 2021 are an indicator of 2022, the GOP just might gain control. Still, Democratic turnout might increase in 2022 when the stakes are higher and the election draws more media coverage.
The bottom line? Republicans aren’t 69% guaranteed to win back the Senate in 2022, so bettors may be overreacting just a bit.
2021 Democrat Wins
While the big news in the 2021 election was the outcome of the Virginia gubernatorial race, buried in all this is the news that Dems scored a big win in New Jersey.
New Jersey hasn’t reelected a Democratic governor since 1977. In 2021, the Democrats won the gubernatorial race, reelecting Phil Murphy as governor.
2022 Overall Odds
The 2022 Midterm Election is less than a year away — and the election cycle itself isn’t far away. And while we won’t need to worry about a presidential election for another three years or so, the pres’s popularity is a factor that will influence the outcome of the midterm elections.
Right now, the GOP are favorites. But while many analysts might be predicting a bleak outcome for democratic senate seats come November, it’s not in the bag yet for Republicans, either.
Biden’s popularity isn’t as high as it needs to be in 2024 (as of publishing, it’s currently in the mid-40s), but that doesn’t mean that it won’t rise in the next 10 months or so. Many Americans disliked his handling of vaccination requirements and mask mandates, which is one factor that may have driven down his rating.
But Biden also just passed a massive infrastructure bill this week — one that both Democrats and Republicans have tried passing for decades (including Trump who tried to pass an infrastructure bill during his one term as president) but were unable to do so.
Experts think this bill might just be the push Biden needs to increase his approval rating and solidify the Dem’s seat in the senate for 2022.
2022 Senate Odds: Democratic Seats
Democrats will be watching four states in 2022, hoping to flip seats in both the Senate and the House as well as dominate gubernatorial elections. Currently, Dems are looking at Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.
Even though Ralph Warnock was elected into office just about a year ago, the Georgia State Senator will need to defend his seat in 2022. Because Warnock won a special election and the previous senator’s term was up in 2023, Warnock will need to run again this upcoming year.
The good news for Democrats is that the party won several victories in the local elections in Georgia in 2021 — and Warnock is the favorite for the 2022 elections, too.
Warnock’s rival is Herschel Walker, a candidate that comes with a lot of baggage. While Walker is a former NFL running back (he played for the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Giants), which could help his chances, he’s also connected to abuse allegations and has no previous political experience.
Analysts believe that Warnock, who is a pastor that has inspired black turnout in Georgia, will be the favorite for the 2022 Senate election.
Nevada is now considered another battleground state.
In 2022, we’ll see another gubernatorial election, where Governor Sisolak will fight for reelection. Currently, he has a slim lead against Republican candidates (former Senator. Dean Heller and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo) — though his approval rating is only 46%. Many Nevadans disapproved of how he handled COVID-19.
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is also up for reelection, and this is predicted to be just as tight as the race for governor.
Matso is favored in Nevada, though analysts expect her road to re-election to be a long one this year.
In Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly is up for reelection. He currently occupies the seat left empty by John McCain. Should he defend his seat, he won’t need to run for reelection for another six years.
Whether Mark Kelly is the favorite for this election remains to be seen. While Kelly is currently running a multi-million dollar campaign, his challengers are also well-funded. In fact, five Republican challengers are running campaigns against Kelly.
What shouldn’t be overlooked is that Arizona has been voting for Democrats more and more over the past few years.
Analysts also believe that the only GOP challenger that could possibly unseat Kelly is Mark Brnovich, the 26th Attorney General of Arizona. He’s the only candidate that has run a state-wide campaign. Some believe that Brnovich won’t win the GOP primary. The favorite to win the primary is currently Blake Masters, venture capitalist and president of the Thiel Foundation.
The favorite between Kelly and Masters is currently Kelly.
Republican Governor Chris Sununu has decided to run for reelection in New Hampshire — and rejecting his bid for the senate.
While this means the GOP will need to choose a new candidate for the senate, it also means that Sununu may now be the favorite in the gubernatorial election. He’s famously received support from both Democrat and Republican voters in the state.
Maggie Hassan is up for reelection in 2022 as well. Now that Sununu has decided not to run for her seat in the Senate, we’ll keep our eyes peeled to see if she is the favorite to win against her challenger.
2022 Senate Odds: Republican Seats
There are several battleground states where senators are up for reelection.
Right now Dems are vying for wins in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina. But the odds that Democrats will take all four states is unlikely. (But if they did, it could make for a very interesting future bet!)
Florida, Ohio, and Missouri are all considered up for grabs in 2022. Though, Florida voters are expected to vote Republican (unless they’re in Miami). And Missouri very rarely ever leans left (unless voters are in St. Louis or Kansas City).
Dems hope to win Missouri because one of the candidates that could be nominated to run for the gubernatorial election is racked with scandal. Former Governor Eric Greitens is backed by Trump supporters and left office during his first term because of sexual assault allegations.
If Greitens does in fact make his way onto the ballot in November 2022, he may still win; the state is considered ‘too red’ for Dems to win — but Missouri had a Democrat governor from 2009 to 2017 and 5 out of the last 10 governors of Missouri were democrats.
It’s not an obvious win for Republicans in Missouri.
Ohio’s governor is up for reelection in 2022. In January 2021, Senator Rob Portman announced his retirement, so his seat is up for grabs, too. Several Republicans have already joined the race, and former Ohio state treasurer Josh Mandel may be the favorite.
While Mandell has been the subject of some pretty intense headlines (he won the “pants on fire” award for lying so often), he may just be considered the favorite to win the GOP primary.
North Carolina is also considered a ‘possible’ for the left, but the state does lean heavily Republican. Though the governor is a democrat, 48.6% of North Carolinians voted for Biden, while 49.9% of the state voted for Trump.
While those percentages aren’t terribly far off, the Tar Heel state is considered pretty republican overall. The GOP might just be the favorites in this state.
Best Political and Election Betting Market Sites
Currently, there are three election prediction betting sites that allow you to purchase shares or contracts of the outcome of yes or no statements regarding the 2022 elections.
Not only can you bet on who will win control of the Senate in 2022, but you can also bet on individual races, primary races, and more.
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Iowa Electronic Markets
The Iowa Electronic Markets is run by the University of Iowa. This site is a little more bare-bones than the others, and not all markets are often open.
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Prediction markets include the following:
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