2023 MLB Future Bets: Player Home Run Total Best Bets

2023 MLB Future Bets: Player Home Run Total Best Bets
Image ©Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Frank Weber
Frank Weber
May 19th 2023

The World Baseball Classic is over–congrats team Japan–so now it’s time to focus on the real important matter: opening day.

2023 Opening Day is just ONE WEEK away, and for the first time in decades, all 30 Major League teams are scheduled to play on opening day, which is March 30th. 

Since Opening Day is just a week away, that means the clock is ticking. You have to join your fantasy leagues, you have to make your bold preseason predictions, and, most importantly, you have to place your future bets.

DraftKings Sportsbook has released their player-specific future bets, and today we will be looking at a few players' home run totals. Other online sportsbooks have also released some MLB future bets, so be sure to check those out.

So, without further to do, here are SIX best bets–three overs, three unders–that you should check out before Opening Day. 

2023 MLB Home Run Futures Best Bets

Austin Riley OVER 33.5 Home Runs (-105)

Riley scorched this total in 2022, smashing a career-high 38 home runs. The year before, Riley hit 33–so just one off the mark. Seeing as how he’s practically hit the total in each of his last two seasons, I think this one is a bit of a gimme. Riley will be the heart of a Braves lineup that is always one of the best in the league, and I expect him to have an MVP-caliber season. I think he crushes this 33.5 home run total. 

Teoscar Hernandez UNDER 27.5 Home Runs (-110)

Hernandez had a bit of a slow season in 2022, but still managed to put up decent numbers. He tallied 25 home runs with 77 RBIs, hitting .267. Despite that, the Blue Jays decided it was time to move on–so they shipped him out to Seattle. Safeco Field, where the Mariners play, is one of the least hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball–so while Hernandez may rebound offensively, I’m afraid his home run numbers will continue to regress. 

Nolan Arenado OVER 28.5 Home Runs (-115)

This is one of the more confusing lines set by DraftKings. Arenado has failed to hit the 30-home run mark only twice in his career (not including the COVID season) and the last happened in 2014. Arenado is one of the best third basemen in all of baseball, and I expect a huge season out of the Cardinals this year, so Arenado could be looking down the barrel at a 35+ home run campaign. Not sure where 28.5 came from, but I’ll take the over any day of the week. 

Fernando Tatis Jr UNDER 33.5 Home Runs (-125)

Before I break things down, just a reminder here–Tatis is missing almost the entire first month of the season because of his steroid-related suspension. So, whatever you think his home run total WOULD have been, knock off at least five. If you’re still over 33.5, then good for you. But, I just don’t see it happening. He missed a lot of time last year–the entire season to be exact–and I think we’ll see the repercussions of that in 2023.

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 30.5 Home Runs (-105)

Stanton has surpassed the 30 home run mark in four of his last six seasons–those two seasons where he didn’t, he struggled with injury. So, if Stanton is healthy, it’s fair to say that this one will hit. However, that’s a HUGE if. Stanton obviously is an injury magnet, and you could almost guarantee an IL stint at some point in this season. However, now that he has a true bash brother in Aaron Judge, I think Stanton will step up to the plate and have a productive 2023. 

George Springer UNDER 28.5 Home Runs (-120)

Springer hasn’t hit this mark in either of his last three seasons and he’s a huge injury risk. Actually, Springer has only hit over 28 home runs in three of his nine Major League seasons, so this is another line that leaves me scratching my head.

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