2023 MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Best Bets

2023 MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Best Bets
Image ©Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
✍️ Written by
Frank Weber
🗓 Updated
May 19th 2023

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, it’s time we set our sights on what’s most important–the 2023 MLB season. With opening day just on the horizon (March 30th) it’s time we settle down and flesh out our pre-season futures. DraftKings Sportsbook just released odds on who they think will lead the league in Home Runs, so let’s take a look at who will launch the most nukes in 2023.

As I mentioned earlier, the odds used in this story are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. If DraftKings is not available in your area, be sure to check out any of these other online casinos.

Before I give my best bets, here are the ten players with the best odds:

2023 MLB Regular Season Home Run Leader Odds

Aaron Judge +600

Mike Trout +800

Pete Alonso +900

Yordan Alvarez +1000

Kyle Schwarber +1100

Vladimir Guerrero Jr +1200

Austin Riley +1300

Fernando Tatis Jr +1400

Shohei Ohtani +1500

Matt Olson +1800

I'll start by giving out some favorites, followed up by some middle-of-the-pack players, and then–of course–my big money sleeper picks.

The Favorites

Aaron Judge (+600)

I mean, how could you not love Judge in this spot? He’s coming off a 62-home run campaign that broke the AL single season homerun record, and then he signed a monster contract in the offseason so I’m sure he’ll be trying to prove his worth. The scary part of this bet, though, is Judges' illustrious injury history. If he can make it through the entire year, I expect at LEAST 45 home runs from Judge. Will that be enough? Only time will tell. Regardless, this isn’t an awful bet at these odds.

Pete Alonso (+900)

Since Alono’s debut in 2019, no one player has hit more home runs than the Polar Bear. He has 146 home runs through his first four seasons, and managed to hit 40 in 2022. He is the heart of a Mets’ lineup that has been improving over the years and was the main producer in their offense last year (proven by his MLB-best 131 RBIs last year). I think this could be a huge year for Alonso, and I love his odds a little more than Judges in this spot.

Kyle Schwarber (+1100)

Schwarber sneakily hit 46 home runs last year, and I really wouldn’t be surprised if he did it again. He’s the main power source in a Phillies lineup that is STACKED, even with Harper missing at least the first half of the season. Schwarber, if he is able to at least maintain a decent average, should be a no-doubter to hit 40 bombs.

Middle Of The Pack Bets

Ronald Acuna Jr (+4000)

I know, I was just worrying about Judge’s injury history and now here I am tooting the Acuna horn. Just hear me out, though–it was just four years ago when a 21-year-old Acuna hit 41 home runs. Sure, since then he’s only complied 43 in three years–but if Acuna can stay healthy, he’s one of the most dangerous hitters in the league.

Julio Rodriguez (+4000)

I know, this is my oogling over the shiny new toy, but come on–tell me it isn’t at least a little enticing. In just 130 games last season, J-Rod managed to hit 28 home runs. Through a full season into the mix, and you’re looking at a 35 home run rookie campaign. Now consider Rodriguez has another year of experience, and he could be a real problem behind the plate.


Oneil Cruz (+10000)

The kid is a unicorn–I haven’t ever seen a player with his potential. He has the height, the power, and the speed to be one of the best players in the league, and he managed to bash 17 home runs in just 87 games last season. He’s a very raw prospect, but if he’s able to continue to improve, he could be an easy 40 home run talent.

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