2023 MLB MVP Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets
Opening day is less than two weeks away–and would you look at that, I’m a poet and I didn’t even know it. Rhyming aside, we’re almost there, baseball fans.
It’s been a long offseason, but it’ll come to an end on Thursday, March 30th. All 30 teams–so fifteen games–are slated for this year's opening day, which will mark the first time every MLB team plays on opening day since 1968.
That means that all of the MLB’s stars will be playing at the same time, and all will be beginning their journey for the World Series. Some, however, have personal achievement in mind as well–and that’s what we’ll be looking at today.
The MLB MVP awards are some of the most prestigious awards in all of sports, so it’s only right that we give it our time–and possibly place a wager or two on their outcomes.
2023 MLB AL MVP Odds
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the odds for who will take home the 2023 AL MVP.
Shohei Ohtani +220
Aaron Judge +700
Mike Trout +800
Julio Rodriguez +900
Yordan Alvarez +1200
Vladimir Guerrero Jr +1300
Jose Ramirez +1500
Kyle Tucker +2500
Rafael Devers +3000
Adley Rutschman +3500
Wander Franco +4000
Byron Buxton +4000
Corey Seager +4500
Carlos Correa +5000
Alex Bregman +6000
In what should come as no surprise, Shohei Ohtani stands high above the rest of the league as the overwhelming favorite. Rightfully so, if you ask me, because he obviously gets to benefit from both his pitching and hitting statistics.
Last year’s MVP, Aaron Judge, clocks in at second with +700 odds. He’ll almost definitely not recreate his 2022 season, but a 50-home run campaign is definitely a possibility. If Ohtani continues to put up similar numbers as he has in the past, it’ll probably take a 50+ home run season from Judge to give him a true run for his money.
Ohtani’s teammate, Mike Trout, is a decent bet at third with +800 odds. He’s had some injury fears in the past, but is good for 40+ home runs every year, so he’s a proverbial MVP contender.
I think the most intriguing bet of the lot, though, is Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez. It’ll be interesting to see how he continues to grow as a player, and if he can reach the 30/30 (or even 40/40) mark that he showed the potential of hitting in 2022.
All of that said, though, none of these ballers are my best bet to win it all. That belongs to…
2023 AL MVP Best Bet
Jose Ramirez (+1500)
In the past six seasons, Jose Ramirez has finished in the top four of MVP voting four times, and he’s finished in the top six once. So, he’s right on the line–and I think he’ll finally cross it in 2023. He’s a shoe-in for at least 30 home runs and 20 steals with a .275 average, but if he’s able to break that ceiling and really put up some numbers in 2023, then the MVP trophy could be his.
2023 NL MVP Odds
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the odds for who will take home the 2023 NL MVP.
Juan Soto (+550)
Mookie Betts (+950)
Ronald Acuna Jr (+1000)
Fernando Tatis Jr (+1000)
Manny Machado (+1200)
Nolan Arenado (+1200)
Trea Turner (+1300)
Freddie Freeman (+1400)
Paul Goldschmidt (+1500)
Pete Alonso (+1600)
Austin Riley (+1600)
Matt Olson (+2400)
Francisco Lindor (+2500)
Kyle Schwarber (+3500)
Xander Bogaerts (+4000)
As you can see, the NL race is a bit closer–but it’s Juan Soto that sits above the rest, with +500 odds. Personally, I’m avoiding Soto in all formats this year. Yes, he’s a generational talent, but he really had a rough season in 2022. Yes, he walked a bunch and his OBP was great–but all that really doesn’t matter when you’re hitting .242 with only 27 home runs.
I think Mookie Betts, at +900, is a much more viable option, and Acuna at +1000 is great value if he’s able to stay healthy. Fernando Tatis Jr is a bit of a scary option too, because I’m not sure how he’ll play without his steroids–I mean ringworm medicine.
I know, this has been a lot of negative talk–but there is someone, with great value, that I think could make a real run for the MVP trophy this year…
2023 NL MVP Best Bet
Francisco Lindor (+2500)
I know, it’s a long shot, but just hear me out. Lindor is definitely becoming more comfortable in Queens and is settling back into the player he was in Cleveland. Last season, he hit .270 with 26 home runs and 107 RBIs. I have him slated to hit at least 30-35 home runs in 2023, with a nice increase in RBIs and average as well.
Where he could really steal this race, literally, is in the steals category. He stole 16 bases in 2022, which is six more than he did in 2021, but is nowhere near his career high. In 2018 he stole 25 bags, and now that the bases are bigger and there’s a pick-off limit, I expect steals to be up across the entire league, which could mean big things for the speedy Lindor.
