2023 NBA Finals Odds: Best Long Shot Bets to Make
We just witnessed one of the most improbable NBA playoff series ever.
That’s my take on the unpredictable Heat-Celtics epic Eastern Conference Finals, which concluded with Miami’s stunningly easy road win in Game 7, and my writer/editor/blogger sports fans all agree.
Not since LeBron’s Cleveland Cavaliers rallied off the ropes down 3-1 in the 2016 Finals to shock the mighty and seemingly unbeatable defending champion Golden State Warriors on the road in Game 7 – the only team in NBA Finals history to do that – has there been a series quite as bizarre as this one.
If you said that you predicted Miami would go up 3-0 (the first two were road wins in Boston), then lose the next three straight, and then crush the Celtics in the series-clinching finale, you’re lying more than George Santos.
Miami made NBA history by becoming the second No. 8 seed to make the Finals (following the Knicks in 1994) and the first-ever play-in team to make the Finals.
The Heat beat the East’s No. 1 (Bucks), No. 5 (Knicks) and No. 2 (Celtics) seeds to reach the Finals, winning each series as the road underdog without one of their best scorers, Tyler Herro.
Herro, who was injured in Game 1 of Miami’s first-round upset of Milwaukee, could return by Game 3 of the Finals.
Miami is gonna need another warrior like Herro, the team’s third-leading scorer (20.1 ppg) during the regular season, because the Heat will be gassed after the mentally and physically exhausting experience of the East Finals.
Plus, Denver will have the second most time off between a conference championship and the start of the NBA Finals: a whopping nine days of rest.
(Only the Warriors in 2019 had more time to heal with 10 days off).
That does not bode well for Miami. But a team coached by Eric Spoelstra can never be counted out. He has guided the Heat to their sixth NBA Finals in the last 11 years.
Here’s the one and only thing we do know about the 2023 NBA Finals: The champion will be the fifth different team to win a title over the past five seasons.
Most everyone has the Nuggets cruising to their first NBA championship in franchise history and that does seem likely, with either Nikola Jokic (the heavy favorite) or Jamal Murray (third choice after Jimmy Butler) to win Finals MVP, but let’s stick with the Who-the-hell-knows-this-year narrative, shall we?
So what we’re going to do is look at a couple of long-shot bets that could come through, but please don’t wager aggressively on these. The odds are where they are for a reason. The ones I’ll be providing are courtesy of FanDuel and DraftKings, two of our favorite gambling sites out there along with BetMGM and many more.
Fan Duel: 2023 NBA Finals Exact Order
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. DEN (+500)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN (+700)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN (+700)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN (+1500)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. DEN (+1800)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. DEN (+2100)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. DEN (+2300)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. MIA (+3400)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA (+3600)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN (+3900)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN (+3900)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA (+3900)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. DEN (+4000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN (+4000)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. MIA (+4000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN (+4300)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. DEN (+4300)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. MIA (+4500)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. DEN (+4700)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. DEN (+4700)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. DEN (+4800)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. DEN (+4800)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. DEN (+5000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. DEN (+5000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. DEN (+5000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. MIA (+5000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. DEN (+5000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. MIA (+5500)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. DEN (+5500)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. MIA (+9000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA (+9000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. MIA (+10000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA (+10000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN (+10000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA (+10000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA (+10000)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. MIA (+10000)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. MIA (+10000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. MIA (+10000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. MIA (+10000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN (+10000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. DEN (+11000)
G1. DEN G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. MIA (+11000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. MIA (+11000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. MIA (+11000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. MIA (+11000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. DEN (+12000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. MIA (+11000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. DEN (+11000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. DEN (+12000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. DEN (+12000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. DEN (+12000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. DEN (+13000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. DEN (+13000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA (+13000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA (+13000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. DEN (+13000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. DEN (+13000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA (+20000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. MIA G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. DEN G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. MIA G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. DEN G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. MIA G4. DEN G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. MIA G5. DEN G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. DEN (+20000)
G1. MIA G2. MIA G3. DEN G4. DEN G5. MIA G6. DEN G7. MIA (+20000)
As you can see, lots and lots of options. But oh brothers and sisters and mothers, since this Miami Heat team has been so difficult to figure out, let’s try this: Every home team will win … until Game 7 – which would be Father’s Day (Sunday, June 18) when the Heat will mind-blow the NBA world again by winning in Denver to claim it’s fourth championship in franchise history.
Less decent odds: The Nuggets, in the same scenario, but winning Game 7. That’s pretty good value at +1800 if you think the series will go the distance with Denver finally winning its first NBA title.
FanDuel: NBA Finals MVP 2022-2023
Nikola Jokic -320
Jimmy Butler +330
Jamal Murray +1200
Caleb Martin +5000
Bam Adebayo +5500
Tyler Herro +50000
Bruce Brown +50000
Michael Porter Jr. +22000
Aaron Gordon +27000
Max Strus +50000
Gabe Vincent +50000
Martin has been a revelation in this year’s playoffs and with Herro likely out the first two games he’ll have a chance to continue his incredible ascent after being undrafted in 2019.
He averaged nearly 20 points per game on an incredible 60 percent shooting from the floor (an eye-popping 48.9 from 3-point land) in the East Finals and he’s also a well-above-average defender. He’s always snatching rebounds, sneaking in a steal, dishing an assist, etc.
We could be looking at a surprise NBA Finals MVP like in 2015 when the star-studded Warriors won the title and the MVP was … overlooked (125-to-1!) Andre Iguodala. But Miami would need to pull off the impossible by winning the series while the Nuggets also bottled up Jimmy Butler.
Draft Kings: Player to Make a Field Goal at the End of Any Quarter as Time Expires – No Chance of the Opponent to Inbound
Nikola Jokic: 3-pointer (+2000)
Look, the dude has done it before – in fact a couple of times already this postseason. It’s worth a very small sprinkle because you never know if the Joker is gonna flush a Larry Bird-esque buzzer-beater as his legend continues.
