2024 Presidential Election Predictions – Trump vs. Biden in Iowa
Both the Democratic and Republican Parties have long viewed Iowa as a seminal, “bellwether” swing state in American presidential elections – which is why both of their presidential primaries begin with caucuses in the Hawkeye State.
In recent years, these caucuses have come under scrutiny for being a mixed bag, prediction wise - per the Des Moines Register, the caucuses have around a 55% efficacy rate at predicting the presidential nominee, but a 16% efficacy rate at predicting the presidential winner, so make of that what you will. Critics have also argued that these caucuses aren’t the most representative of the overall ideological, class, and cultural diversity of the United States voting electorate.
The caucus process isn’t the most accessible to working-class people who would need to take hours out of their workday to vote, and the entrance polls from the 2020 Democratic Iowa caucus indicated that over 90% of its voters were Caucasian, which suggests that the caucus' sample size is still woefully under representative of this country’s diverse voting populations. Even so, a lot of electoral wonks are still putting a lot of emphasis on Iowa as a pivotal swing state, and if you think its swing still has influential sway, then it could potentially spell bad news for the 2024 elections' incumbent candidate, current P.O.T.U.S. Joe Biden.
While we’re still a ways out from 2024’s Iowa caucuses, a new Selzer & Co poll reported in the Des Moines Register found that former president Donald Trump holds a firm double-digit (11%) lead over Biden, 51% vs 40%, respectively. Granted, the poll only asked 810 Iowan voters for their two cents, and a lot can still change between now and 2024, but if you like predicting political futures then you’d probably like to know what the industry’s top prediction markets have to say about these 2024 trends. Keep reading to learn more!
2024 Election Prediction Odds
Kalshi is a new prediction exchange trading market named after the Arabic word for “everything”, and true to its name, you could potentially make money by predicting just about everything. If not everything, just about everything short of the kitchen sink! You get the idea! Unfortunately, they don’t have any prediction markets open yet on the 2024 electoral race, but what political markets they do have open suggest a largely pessimistic perception of Biden's overall performance.
For one, issues relating to climate change and environmental protections have been a major facet of the Biden Administration’s campaign promises, yet Kalshi only has a nickel price on the “Yes” shares on a carbon tax becoming law before December 12th. Likewise, they only have a measly nickel and three cents placed on the corporate tax rate being raised 21% before the end of the year, suggesting a lack of confidence that Biden will hold the wealthy accountable in paying their fair share.
Furthermore, on the capital gains tax being raised before December 29th, Kalshi has only priced a dime and a penny on that prediction coming to fruition. It’s important to remember that these numbers could also suggest a bipartisan dissatisfaction, as it’s a bipartisan House and Senate which are negotiating the terms of these regulations.
Certainly, there are aspects of Biden’s agenda that GOP representatives would not be in favor of coming to pass, and there’s been emergent inter-party tensions within the DNC too, with people like Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema drawing ire for pressuring the House to water down the more progressive, widely-favored elements of Biden’s “Build Back Better” legislation plans
However, while Biden himself may not be completely personally responsible for the results of these outcomes, these outcomes will still be inextricably linked to his administration’s performance and public approval rating, as they’re obviously occurring under his administration.
If we contextualize these aforementioned numbers and the aforementioned Des Moines poll onto the PredictIt presidential prediction markets, then it doesn’t spell a very good or optimistic picture for the incumbent candidate in 2024. In a hypothetical presidential matchup between him and Donald Trump, Trump beats Biden by five points, or a solid nickel (29 cent shares vs 24 cent shares).
Furthermore, even as a hypothetical favorite for a new running mate, Ron DeSantis has 8 cents on him winning over current Biden VP Kamala Harris (20 cents vs 12 cents, respectively). All of the above numbers paint a very pessimistic picture for the Democrats’ 2024 electoral hopes, unless they’re able to overcome the gridlock that beset their recent infrastructure bill negotiations.
Granted, a lot can still change over the course of 2-3 years, and there’s sure to be multiple other candidates on both parties vying for the 2024 nominations. Only time will tell how these things transpire, and for more prediction market news, be sure to stay in touch with us by signing up for our mailing list.