Argentina vs Croatia: World Cup Semi-Final Odds

Argentina vs Croatia: World Cup Semi-Final Odds
✍️ Written by
Sarah Ryan
🗓 Updated
May 19th 2023

The Morocco national football team made history last Saturday following their 1-0 victory against Portugal, beating the bookmakers’ odds and becoming the first African national team to advance to the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup. As we covered last week, they defied a 20% implied probability to make it to the next round.

This Wednesday, they’ll face even steeper odds, and a potentially even more uphill battle against the French national team, led by the exemplary talents of power forward Kylian Mbappe. But before that, Croatia and Argentina will be battling it out tomorrow to determine who makes it to the next stage.

We’ve got the full rundown on FanDuel odds for both World Cup 2:00 P.M. semi-final soccer games, tomorrow and Wednesday, as well as some great sportsbook promo offers (for new and existing users) that you won’t want to miss!

World Cup Semi-Final Betting Odds

Let’s break down the odds for each World Cup semi-final game's:

  • Three-way moneyline

  • Draw no-bet wagers

  • Over/under total goals

  • Both teams to score bets

  • Next round qualifier

Please remember to wager responsibly, never bet more than you’d be comfortable losing, and that none of the reasoning we’re about to describe here is set in stone. Reality can defy expectations in exceedingly strange ways, and only time will tell how it pans out over the next two games over the next two days. With that being said, here’s where the odds currently stand for both upcoming semi-final face-offs.

World Cup Croatia vs. Argentina

Will Croatia mess up Messi’s World Cup hopes? Here are the latest FanDuel odds for tomorrow’s semi-final World Cup game between Croatia and Argentina:

  • Three-Way Moneyline: Croatia (+390), Draw (+220), Argentina (-115)

  • O/U 2.5 Total Goals: Over 2.5 Goals (+142), Under 2.5 Goals (-174)

  • Draw/Tie No Bet: Croatia (+240), Argentina (-330)

  • Both Teams To Score: Yes (+112), No (-142)

  • To Qualify For Next Round: Croatia (+205), Argentina (-260)

Croatia previously beat Argentina 3-0 in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup, but they aren’t favored this time around, and it makes sense on paper. Although Luka Modric was able to lead his squad to upset the previously favored Brazilian national team with a 4-2 victory in the penalty round, Lionel Messi’s squad might pose an even bigger challenge.

Furthermore, since this is likely Lionel’s last World Cup, you can pretty much be certain that Messi won’t want to go down without a fight. So far, he’s scored six goals this World Cup, the second-most only behind Kylian Mbappe’s seven goals. He’s also generated a whopping sixteen scoring chances throughout his 2022 tournament run. So far, nobody else on the tournament field has yielded more than 11.

Croatia’s upset against Brazil was a prolonged, drag-out brawl that ultimately came down to penalty kicks to get the win, as their midfield defense was enough to tamp things down to a 1-1 total in the main 90 minutes. We expect Croatia to try to tailor the game in a similar direction, and they probably should if they want to have any hope of messing up Messi’s World Cup hopes.

Argentina may attempt to employ a similar defense-heavy strategy too, given the fact that their last game was also a penalty-round nail biter that ended in their 4-3 penalty-kick victory over The Netherlands. Argentina also has more players sidelined with injuries and penalty suspensions than Croatia; if they’re not careful, Modric might be able to exploit those weak points and defy the odds again, just like his team did against Brazil.

But no matter who wins or loses this semi-final match, one trend appears to be evident; the oddsmakers are ultimately leaning toward this game most likely being a lower-scoring affair. Both teams are heavily favored to keep things under 3 goals in the regular time, at a respectable -174 odds, and according to Dimers’ predictive betting algorithm, those odds imply a 58% probability of the game going under.

World Cup France vs. Morocco

Can Morocco beat Mbappe? Here are the latest FanDuel odds for Wednesday’s semi-final World Cup game between France and Morocco:

  • Three-Way Moneyline: Morocco (+650), Draw (+280), France (-190)

  • O/U 2.5 Total Goals: Over 2.5 Goals (+124), Under 2.5 Goals (-150

  • Draw/Tie No Bet: Morocco (+440), France (-700)

  • Both Teams To Score: Yes (+134), No (-172)

  • To Qualify For Next Round: Morocco (+330), France (-440)

We have to give it up for Morocco’s tournament run, continually overcoming doubters and defying underdog odds to make history. But this time around, they’ll need to confront their longest odds yet, in an uphill battle of Sisyphean proportions.

Beyond a lethal French offense led by Kylian Mbappe, the Moroccan national team will have to contend with two players out with injuries (Walid Cheiddera and Romain Saiss), one player out with a suspension, as well as the general fatigue that sets in with teams later into a World Cup tournament. By contrast, France is playing with a full, healthy lineup, led by one of the tournament’s leading goal scorers.

Apart from Lionel Messi, few others have come close to delivering a comparable offensive performance to Kylian Mbappe in this tournament. Although the Moroccan team’s defense might be able to successfully shut down many of the scoring chances Mbappe is capable of generating, the chances of them overcoming France’s offense (at large) sadly don’t look too good.

According to Dimers' predictive algorithm, Morocco’s moneyline odds imply a mere 15.7% probability that they’ll win outright. Ouch. But if they’re able to pull off the upset, it wouldn’t be the first time that Morocco has won big against long odds. Likewise, even though Morocco has more weak points to defend than France, Morocco’s wins have been defined by a defense-oriented play style.

Though the odds don’t favor this defensive approach winning outright, they do at least favor them keeping things close, with -150 odds that the game will stay under 2.5 goals, and -172 odds that only one team will score in this matchup. Dimers’ algorithm also implies a similar probability to Tuesday’s semi-final match that this Wednesday's game will lean under: 57% compared to the other game’s 58%.

In a tournament run defined by continual defiance of the odds, only time will tell what the near future will hold. But FanDuel’s no-sweat world soccer tournament promos can help you bet safer, smarter, and lower risk, by refunding lost wagers in site credit.

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You can read our full in-depth review to learn more about FanDuel Sportsbook, and prospective new users can claim their welcome bonus by following our link.

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