Does Omicron Pose Ominous Signs For The Future? - And More Pandemic Predictions
We all want life to revert back to its pre-pandemic normal. From vaccinations to boosters to antiviral pills, plenty of wonderful medical advancements have been made over the last year and a half in the fight against COVID-19 to bring those elements of life back.
Right now, COVID poses its largest threat overwhelming toward people who aren’t fully vaccinated against it; the reach of its most devastating symptoms has been significantly hindered thanks to the vaccines. Unfortunately, while we’ve made great strides in being able to combat the worst elements of the pandemic, we aren’t totally out of the woods yet.
The world got a stark reminder that it wasn’t totally out of the woods last week, after the World Health Organization discovered cases of the Omicron variant in South Africa and formally designated it a “variant of concern”. While it’s not yet entirely clear how transmissible Omicron is, whether or not it’s deadlier than other strains of COVID-19, or how far it’s spread across the world, it’s clearly been a prudent matter of concern.
It’s a matter of concern that rattled stock markets, plunging the Dow down over 905 points last week, and it’s a matter of concern that has rattled the prediction markets on Kalshi. If you’re considering putting some money on your optimism or pessimism around the pandemic, here’s what you should know about what’s going on over on Kalshi.
COVID-19 Pandemic Predictions
Right now, Kalshi only has one prediction market open specifically about the Omicron variant. If you’re curious about where the site’s community stands on whether or not Omicron will make up over 1% of COVID-19 cases come the new year, they are unfortunately very pessimistic on the matter; 74 cents are priced on the contract shares saying it will, whereas only 29 cents are priced on the contract shares predicting that it won’t.
Unfortunately, the Kalshi community also seems to have a grim view on how the Omicron variant will come to affect the spread of COVID 19; on there being a day with at least 200,000 COVID-19 cases before January 4th, 2022, just short of three quarters (73 cents) is priced on the shares predicting that it will happen.
The shares predicting over 235 million Americans being vaccinated before December 1st are also, sadly, rather pessimistic: a measly nickel and a penny are priced on the shares saying that will happen. The Kalshi community doesn’t anticipate that fluvoxamine will be approved for emergency use against COVID-19 anytime soon either, with a meager dime on the prediction shares saying it will, and a dime short of a dollar priced on the shares saying it won’t.
Are all of Kalshi’s COVID predictions trending toward doom and gloom though? Absolutely not, and not even close to all of them are. Amid the uncertainty wrought by Omicron, here are some COVID predictions to feel hopeful about:
- No Restaurant Closures In Major Cities: Currently, 88 cents are priced on the prediction shares stating that neither San Fran or NYC will close indoor dining by the New Year.
- Over 232.5 Million Vaccinated By December 1st: Although the Kalshi community doesn’t think we’ll exceed the 235 million vaccinated milestone before December 1st, they have faith that we’ll be over 232.5 million Americans vaccinated by then, with 93 cents priced on the shares predicting that vaccination range.
- Variant Of Concern, But Not High Consequence?: Right now, only 35 cents are priced on the shares saying that the CDC will identify “variants of high concern” before March 4, 2022, even after the discovery of the Omicron variant. Hopefully, that optimism persists through the new year, and our tried and true treatment measures are just as effective at containing Omicron.