Georgia Election Betting Odds: Full Runoff Rundown

Georgia Election Betting Odds: Full Runoff Rundown
Sarah Ryan
Author:
Sarah Ryan
Updated: 
November 16th 2022 - 08:59 AM

The dust has largely settled on the 2022 midterm elections across the country. Though not every congressional, senate, or gubernatorial race has finished counting votes just yet, it’s all but guaranteed that the Democratic Party will retain a narrow Senate majority, and the Republican Party will retain a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

Even so, there are still some noteworthy, standout races to watch this cycle, with regard to both chambers of Congress. In Colorado’s third district, controversial Congressional incumbent Lauren Boebert only holds a narrow, razor-thin vote lead over her opponent, Democratic challenger Adam Frisch.

Currently, that margin stands at an incredibly close neck-and-neck split, with 50.2% of the counted votes going to Boebert, and roughly 49.8% of the counted share going to Frisch. The vote counting in that race will likely finish up later this week, and remains to be seen whether or not Frisch will be able to close the extremely close gap and pull off the upset.

In the Senate, the race to watch right now is down in Georgia. Because the incumbent, Raphael Warnock, was unable to accrue 50% of the vote share, he will be headed for a runoff next month against his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker. Walker was also unable to get past the 50% vote share, which means that Georgia’s third-party vote has all but ensured that Georgia voters will be in for yet another special election cycle.

The U.S. Georgia Senate runoff election is set to take place December 6th, but let’s explore how the pollsters and prediction markets are viewing it in advance. Let’s explore how the incumbent Georgia pastor is expected to fare against the former University of Georgia and NFL running back.

Georgia Election Senate Polls

Currently, there is very little public polling on who Georgia voters are favoring in the runoff elections. But even without the abundance of polls, there are still some clear, discernible trends that could potentially serve to disadvantage either party. 

Georgia’s runoff election laws are not amenable to early voting; as outlets like the Associated Press have covered, November 7th was the last day to register to vote in Georgia, the day before Election Day. Anyone who didn’t register before the midterms cannot register to early vote in this runoff election. 

This could potentially lower turnout, and potentially have an impact on the slight edge Warnock had over Walker heading into this runoff election, with his 49.4% share of the vote over Herschel’s 48.5%. That said, past research has suggested that absentee mail-in voting doesn’t tend to benefit either party (Science.org) one way or the other.

Furthermore, since this election is only deciding whether Democrats expand their Senate majority or the GOP cuts their losses, the broader, national party may be disincentivized from supporting Walker’s run, and struggle with enthusiasm issues of their own. 

Herschel Walker’s campaign has already been rife with controversies that dwindled enthusiasm for the candidate. These mounting controversies moved the general Georgia electorate a few percentage points over to Warnock in 538’s pre-midterm polling. While shifts like the ones described in that article may seem marginal, they ultimately helped Warnock maintain a solid lead by election day, leading his opponent by over 36,000 votes.

PredictIT is relatively bullish on Raphael Warnock’s probability of maintaining his incumbency, with “Yes” shares on him winning the Georgia Senate election currently valued at 77 cents. Likewise, Walker’s shares are valued at a comparatively lower 24 cents, implying that the political betting public views him as having a markedly smaller probability of defeating the incumbent. 

Polymarket’s political betting shares also suggest that the runoff elections will likely trend toward a more decisive lead for Warnock rather than Walker; their shares on a Democratic Senate Victory are currently valued at 77 cents, and values on Republican shares have lowered to 24 cents. 

Georgia Election Predictions 2022

While the final race is likely to come down to a significantly more narrow margin than a 77-24 percentage split, Warnock still seems to be the substantively more likely favorite to win the Georgia runoff election, at least in the eyes of the betting public.

Ultimately, a bet on Walker’s electoral success seems to have a much lower clip than a bet on his rushing and receiving overs would’ve in his Heisman heyday. At this point, Walker would need an absurd Hail Mary to overcome the (largely self-inflicted) blows to his campaign. You would have a much safer time betting on these than you would betting on Walker:

  • The weather and how it shifts daily/weekly/monthly through our changing climate

  • The nominees and outright winners of the Oscars, Emmys, and Grammy Awards

  • The Washington Generals moneyline to cover against the Harlem Globetrotters

Kalshi already lets users trade on the outcomes of those first two things. While the company initially hasn’t offered many open election markets to trade on, the prediction platform recently announced that it’s set to change that, potentially in time for the Georgia runoff elections.

Georgia Voter Registration Deadline

Unfortunately, the time to register to vote in this runoff has already passed, but if you’re a Georgia resident, you can check your voter registration status on the state’s My Voter Page.

We’ll keep you posted if Kalshi adds any election markets for the runoff, and in the meantime, you can read our full review to find out more about the growing prediction market platform.

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