Global Political Predictions, According To PredictIT

Global Political Predictions, According To PredictIT
✍️ Written by
Sarah Ryan
🗓 Updated
Aug 23rd 2023

With almost 200 countries around the entire world, there’s bound to be all sorts of political goings-on to follow. And with all the people following all those political goings-on, there’s bound to be many people wishing to bet on some of that goings-on.

Are you one of those people? Well, you’ve come to the right place! PredictIT’s long been a favored political betting platform of ours, and if you sign up through the affiliate link they were generous enough to lend us, they’ll match your first deposit for up to $55 for use on the site!

Before you get to trading contract shares on PredictIT, it would be wise to study up on some of their hottest markets ahead of time. Here are some global political goings-on worth following, in both the future and near future.

Next US Ambassador To China? Next US Ambassador To Japan?

The Biden Administration is set to add two new US ambassadors to China and Japan around the start of New Year, and the odds on the likely picks for both seem fairly decisive. Right now on PredictIT, there is a hearty 97 cents priced on R. Nicholas Burns becoming the US’ new ambassador to China.

Burns is a longtime diplomat who’s helped mediate geopolitical relations between the United States and Chinese governments since the late 1980s, so he’s a pretty safe bet for the next man to fill the role of being the US’ next ambassador to China. The safest pick for the US’ next ambassador to Japan, as the PredictIT prices currently stand, is Rahm Emanuel.

Emanuel is probably best known for serving both as the former mayor and Congressional representative of Chicago, and for playing a close, active role in both the Obama and Biden Administrations. His likely appointment isn’t without criticism or controversy, particularly around his attempt to cover up the unjust 2015 police shooting of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald under his term as mayor (see this Guardian piece for more info).

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez put out a public statement calling the nomination “deeply shameful”. But even in the face of intense public scrutiny, it still seems pretty likely that the Biden Administration will move forward with appointing Emanuel as the next U.S. ambassador to Japan. Right now, PredictIT has the odds on Emanuel being confirmed as ambassador before the end of the year priced at a pretty conclusive 96 cents.

The Great Resignation(s)

A lot of hay’s been made about workers leaving their jobs en masse, in no small part thanks to dissatisfactory, unsafe working conditions in certain industries which have only seen those unsafe working conditions intensify under the COVID-19 pandemic.

Less hype and hay’s been made about resignations among the people working up top, but maybe there needs to be more. It only takes a quick glean over PredictIT’s global politics prediction markets to see all the world leaders around the world just raring to go! Here are some notable odds on the next near-future world leader oustings:

  • Next G20 World Leader Out: Right now, PredictIT has two big contract shares on the next two G20 leaders to go; British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, priced at 40 cents, and Brazilian Prime Minister Jair Bolsonaro, priced at 34 cents. Both leaders have been scrutinized for implementing hard-right policies, and particularly their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Next European Leader Out: Boris holds the crown on these odds yet again, with his shares on this prediction priced at a hefty 41 cents. Behind Boris though is Italian prime minister Mario Draghi, with his shares priced at a decent 12 cents.
  • Next African Leader Out: Right now, Ethiopian Prime Minister Aby Ahmed leads this prediction by 35, as his country’s army has remained engaged in war with Tigray. Currently, over 14 cents behind him is Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, whose shares are valued at 21 cents. 
  • Next Latin American Leader Out: Currently, ex-Chilean President Sebastian Pinera leads the shares for this prediction, priced at a solid 91 cents above the competition, and for very good reason. The embattled billionaire politician was ousted for revelations about his shady financial dealings exposed by the Pandora Papers, a massive leak that exposed many shady financial dealings among many of the world’s most affluent people (see this NPR piece for more info).
  • Next Asia-Pacific Leader Out: South Korean President Moon Jae In is currently the leading pick for this prediction, with his shares priced at 62 cents. Behind him though, is controversial Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has long been heavily criticized for his authoritarian practices and failing economic policies, which have heavily lowered the value of the Turkish lira (dollar), but heavily raised his shares 6 cents, from 12¢ to 18¢. 

International Election Odds

Last, but most certainly not least, here are some key prediction odds on elections around the world right now, courtesy of PredictIT’s markets:

  • Brazil 2022 Election Odds: Right now Lula Da Silva leads the charge, priced at a hefty 66 cents over his 19 cent challenger, Sergio Moro.
  • Philippines Presidential Election Odds: Manny Pacquiao’s political career doesn’t seem to be going quite as well as his boxing career, with his presidential hopes only priced at a mere dime and four pennies. By contrast, the prediction shares on his leading opponent (BongBong Marcos) winning the presidency are priced at a healthy 65 cents.
  • New German Chancellor Odds: Olaf Scholz was recently sworn in as Germany’s new chancellor, filling in for longtime chancellor Angela Merkel, who previously served in that role from 2005 to 2021. It doesn’t seem like Scholz is going anywhere anytime soon either, as his odds of remaining in office are priced at a fairly solid 99 cents.
  • French Presidential Election 2022 Odds: As the current incumbent, Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron is strongly favored to retain his seat next year, with the prediction that he’ll retain it priced at a pretty solid 62 cents. His leading challenger, Valerie Pecresse of France’s center-right Republicans Party, only has her shares priced at 26 cents right now.
  • South Korea 2022 Election Outlook: Conservative Yoon Seok-youl is heavily favored to take the presidency after Moon Jae-In in 2022, with his PredictIT shares priced 45 cents over his leading opponent’s, center-left candidate Lee Jae-myung. Respectively, both are currently priced at 76 and 34 cents.

Thinking about buying the dip on any one of the predictions you see here? Would you like to trade on more geopolitical predictions like these? Consider signing up for PredictIT using code “ODDSSEEKER” to get your $55 first deposit match, and consider signing up for our mailing list to find more great prediction market steals.

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