Government Shutdown On December 4th 2021? & More In Political Predictions
Kalshi is a new prediction trading exchange, and true to the English translation of its name (“kalshi” is the Arabic word for “everything”), it allows you to trade on just about everything. Almost every prediction short of pianos falling from the sky (since we don’t live in a Hanna Barbera cartoon), but what they do have can still spell music for your ears – and if all goes well, your wallet!
This week, they’ve got a bunch of big new political prediction markets on the table, and a bunch of new educational resources to make the Kalshi trading experience more accessible to new members. Whether you’re a Kalshi sharp or one of those hypothetical new members, here’s the new political prediction action you can look forward to this week.
New Prediction Market Updates In Seasonal Politics
Around this past summer and early autumn, there were concerns around the Delta variant exacerbating the COVID-19 pandemic back into being an even more persistent problem than it’s been. While its surge has fortunately been slowing in light of new medical advancements in the fight against the virus, the increasingly chilling winter temperatures have some people concerned that it could make a very unfortunate Christmas comeback.
Unfortunately, the Kalshi consensus seems pretty pessimistic about the prospect of a Delta variant surge – on whether or not Delta will make up less than 99.9% of COVID-19 cases come Dec. 1st, only 19 cents are on the contract shares predicting that it will.
In more positive news, electric vehicles are becoming more in vogue as a cleaner, more sustainable, and more environmentally conscious mode of transportation. On whether or not electric vehicles will capture more than 4.4% of the total car market this month, there is a fairly confident 70 cent contract share price on that prediction coming to fruition.
This development comes as we loom on the passing of President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, which could potentially lead to a tremendous tax credit for electric vehicle owners, multiple clean energy manufacturing incentives being implemented across the country, and the U.S. government’s entire federal fleet being replaced with EV cars.
New Prediction Market Updates In Legislative Politics
On whether or not the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before December 20, 2021 though, the Kalshi consensus is, fittingly, almost as divided as the actual Senate on most issues! As it currently stands, 56 cents are priced on a bill passing before the 20th, whereas 44 cents are priced on the contrary outcome.
The filibuster has long been a controversial political debate tactic used against majority governing parties, in which politicians purposely prolong debate discussions to delay or prevent a decision from being made. This strategy is controversial due to the gridlock it often causes, and how often this gridlock is caused for nefarious reasons. To this day, the longest example of it on record is a racist 24 hour, 18 minute filibuster by South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond, who intended to block the Civil Rights Act Of 1957 (which later passed in 1964).
Therefore, there’s been a lot of discourse around weakening the archaic influence of the filibuster in Senate deliberations, but unfortunately, the Kalshi zeitgeist isn’t very optimistic about it weakening anytime soon. On whether or not the filibuster will be weakened before Valentine’s Day 2022, 90 cents are priced on the contract shares saying it won’t happen.
Which brings us to the main concern likely on the minds of political wonks far and wide: will there be a government shutdown come December 4th, 2021? Even amid some very contentious disagreements, Kalshi’s trading base seems pretty hopeful that a shutdown isn’t likely to happen in the near future, with only 15 cents priced on the contract shares saying it will, and 86 cents priced on the shares saying it won’t.
Get To Predicting, Get To Profiting
If you want to trade on any of these predictions but aren’t totally sure where to start, Kalshi is always happy to help new users make the most of its platform. You can visit the exchange’s online support page, check out its education portal, or reach out directly to [email protected] to learn more. You can also sign up for our mailing list to get sent more prediction market news like this.
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