Kalshi Climate Change Predictions

Unless you’ve spent the past odd year-and-a-half or so living under a rock further below sea level than Patrick Star, then you probably already know that we’ve been living in a time of some big crises. We probably don’t have to explain why a once-in-a-century global pandemic fits that signifier, but hopefully our current and future treatment tactics mean we won’t be dealing with Omicron or other variants for terribly longer.

Unfortunately, another big global crisis is looming on the horizon, and it might not only be looming on the horizon, but already here; climate change. Yesterday, multiple outlets (like the Washington Post) reported that the United Nations recently confirmed recording the hottest Arctic temperatures on record last year; 100 degrees Fahrenheit, in the Arctic of all places!

Beyond these already visible signs of change, predict that the world will continue to see even more drastic ecological changes over the coming decades, including:

• Rising temperatures and sea levels
• Longer frost-free seasons
• Erratic precipitation patterns
• More droughts and heatwaves
• More intense hurricanes
• An effectively ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean before 2050

Just as we’ve been trying to adapt to the challenges wrought (and still wrought) by the COVID-19 pandemic, humanity will need to continually adapt to these continual challenges wrought by our changing climate. We’ll see how things shake out in the future (for better or worse) with time, but in the nearer future, here are some Kalshi climate prediction market trends worth following.

Rain Or Shine?

Currently, Kalshi has open prediction markets on the rainfall this week in two major cities: Seattle and NYC. Right now, Kalshi traders don’t seem to think that it will rain over 0.2 inches in Seattle today (70 cents are priced on predicting that NOT happening), but they seem more split on the rainfall trends in the Big Apple, with 45 cents trending “yes”, and 55 cents trending “no”.

There are also two markets open on the rainfall in both cities tomorrow (contract share values TBD), and some holiday-appropriate snow predictions for New York. Sadly, the Kalshi trading community ISN’T leaning toward any miracles on 34th Street taking place this month.

Two quarters and a nickel are priced on the shares predicting that it WON’T snow over an inch in NYC this month, and a whopping 89 cents are currently priced on the shares predicting that the five boroughs won’t see any Christmas Day snowfall.

Climate Change & Rising Temperatures

Even though the United Nations recently recorded the highest Arctic temperatures on record, the Kalshi community doesn’t seem to think that 2021 as a whole will be the hottest year on record. Right now, 86 cents are priced on that prediction NOT coming to fruition.

Perhaps that’s because 2020 and 2016 are currently tied as the two hottest years on record (see this NASA press release for more info on that), and traders anticipate that our warming, changing climate will bring even hotter years on record, so make of that what you will.

On the less global, macro scale, Kalshi also has some markets related to forecasted temperature predictions in Chicago and NYC. Right now, the trading community’s trends on these markets are pointing toward warming temperature trends as a whole, including:

• 84 cents priced on the high NYC temperature being above 52 degrees today
• 70 cents priced on the high Chicago temperature being above 63 degrees today
• 76 cents priced on NYC’s lowest Dec. temperature NOT falling below 20 degrees 
• 51 cents priced on Chicago’s highest temp exceeding 62 degrees tomorrow

Like 100 degrees in the Arctic, 63+ degrees is a pretty significant December temperature shift for Chicago, a city notorious for its brisk winter chill and high winds. But the climate change-related markets don’t stop changing there!

Rising Water Levels

In that first NASA article we touched on, the IPCC & NASA predicted that our sea levels could rise 1-8 feet by 2100. While that might not sound like a lot on the surface, it could lead to significant flooding and displacement if the world doesn’t effectively adapt and prepare to mitigate the damaging effects of this sea-level rise. If you’re curious about the potential magnitude of that rise, this interactive NOAA sea level rise map offers a helpful visualizer.

For what it’s worth though, the Kalshi community doesn’t expect an unprecedented rise in Lake Mead’s elevation anytime soon. Right now, there are 93 cents priced on Lake Mead’s elevation NOT exceeding 1068 feet by the end of the month.

If any of these predictions are of interest to you, consider signing up for Kalshi and trading on them safely, responsibly, and wisely. And for more predictions of interest, delivered straight to your inbox, why not consider signing up for our mailing list while you're at it? You'd be doing us a solid, and we'd be happy to return the favor.