Kalshi Contracts For December 2022

✍️ Written by :

Sarah Ryan

🗓 Updated :

Sep 22nd 2023

Christmas time is almost here, and if you have a knack for intuition, prediction markets might be able to gift you some decent returns. Beyond sports, you can utilize these prediction markets to trade on the outcomes of things like the economy, entertainment, and even the weather.

Kalshi is one such prediction trading platform, enabling you to trade on outcomes unfolding over a daily, weekly, monthly, or annual basis. Traders can access this federally-regulated exchange platform on their web browser, or through their Android and iOS mobile app.

Today, we’ll be profiling three different categories of those monthly prediction markets. If you’ve been closely watching the upticks in consumer prices, job numbers, or the inches of snow piling on the streets of SoHo, then you may want to pay close mind to these monthly Kalshi markets.

Kalshi Exchange Monthly Events

Kalshi contracts are priced at their own unique valuations, which typically fluctuate depending on the perceived probability or improbability of an outcome coming to fruition. If you own individual shares of a specific contract on one outcome and that outcome ends up coming to pass, you’ll be paid out a dollar for each share of the winning contract you own.

Remember to trade responsibly, never risk more than you’d be comfortable losing, and do your due diligence in researching these monthly Kalshi markets for yourself! With that said, here are three Kalshi monthly markets you’ll want to watch through the remainder of December, and through the remainder of the year!

1. Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

Month by month, Kalshi allows you to trade on the Consumer Price Index, and whether or not inflation rates rise or fall by the end of the month. Believe it or not, Kalshi’s December 2022 inflation markets are leaning on the side of deflation, with a forecasted projection that inflation will start to decrease by -0.1% or more.

You can stake multiple positions outside that range, ranging from -0.3% to 0.4%, but the majority of the value seems to be leaning toward the negatives. Ironically, this is a potentially positive sign that consumers will have a lighter strain on their wallets this holiday season. The CPI estimates with the highest implied probabilities of hitting are:

-0.1%: Valued at 48% probability/48 cents a share
-0.2%: Valued at 67% probability/67 cents a share
-0.3%: Valued at 85% probability/85 cents a share

Even though these contracts strictly apply to the month of December, this market will settle on January 12th, 2023. It’s based on ever-evolving BLS statistics, so follow them closely before making any trades. If the CPI doesn’t float your boat, you can also trade on core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation estimates for the month.

The inflation situation might be starting to improve and stabilize for now, but if there’s anything consumers can take away from the past few years, the average number of dimes you’ll need to pay for your essential expenses can easily flip on a dime.

2. Employment and Unemployment

Kalshi enables you to trade on both job numbers and unemployment numbers for the month, every month, on a year-round basis. Like the CPI inflation market stats, these job numbers are verified by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and right now, the highest implied probability is on a 50% value (or 50 cents a share) that -100,001 shares or less will be added in the month of December.

The second-highest valued share in this market is in the range of 200,000 to 299,999 jobs being added this month, priced at 36%, or 36 cents a share. The third biggest slice of the pie is in the range of 100,000 to 199,999 jobs being added over the next month, at 31%, or 31 cents a share. You can also purchase more positions outside of those ranges, but the most reliable ballpark range seems to be between less than 100,000 jobs added, and up to 300,000 jobs added.

3. NYC’s Snow Season

On Kalshi, weather trades can potentially return big windfalls, and one of the biggest ongoing monthly weather markets they have at the moment pertains to the Big Apple. More specifically, it pertains to how many inches of snow will fall on the Big Apple this December. The Kalshi trading community seems to agree that New York City will have a white Christmas, but still isn’t quite sure whether things will shake out as a simple flurry or a torrential blizzard.

Right now, there is a heavy 79-cent valuation on the contract shares predicting that NYC will see more than 1 inch of snow in the month of December. But outside that range is still some trends worth watching. Currently, there’s a 49 percent/49 cent valuation on shares predicting over five inches of December snow in New York City, and shares predicting 10 or 15 inches of snow are tied in a dead heat at 50%, or 50 cents a share.

This market will settle on January 3rd, 2023, and its outcome is formally verified by data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But if you’re desiring a more immediate payout, you can also trade on weekly and even daily weather trends in major cities like Chicago and New York. Since our climate can make even more erratic changes than our consumer price index, follow their forecasts closely and carefully!