New Jersey Election Predictions - Who Will Become Governor?

New Jersey Election Predictions - Who Will Become Governor?
✍️ Written by
Sarah Ryan
🗓 Updated
Aug 23rd 2023

Tomorrow is Election Day in the Garden State, and it’s a big one for New Jersey voters, as they decide who’ll govern their state for the next four years; will incumbent Phil Murphy be re-elected to serve another term, or will his gubernatorial seat be ousted by Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli?

If you’re wondering where your favorite candidate’s odds currently stand, or about how you can potentially make some money off their potential victory, then you should probably give this betting rundown a look.

New Jersey Election Prediction Picks

Right now, a recent Farleigh Dickinson University survey pegs Phil Murphy having around a solid nine-point lead over Jack Ciattarelli, 53% versus 44%. Predictably, both candidates have very strong support bases amongst their own party constituents, with Governor Murphy having the support of roughly 94% of New Jersey Democrats, and Ciattarelli the support of 91% of Garden State Republicans.

Both candidates lead where you would expect them to, in the state’s respective Democratic and Republican strongholds, but interestingly, it seems that a groundswell of independent support could be trending in favor of Murphy. When FDU polled Independents last Monday, only 24% of independent voters said they would support Murphy. Fast forward only three days later to last Thursday, and that support base swelled to 54% of independents.

However, Ciattarelli is believed to have a 17-29 point lead amongst those remaining independents, with Murphy’s police reforms (and Republican opposition to them) appearing to be a strong pet issue mobilizing his right-wing base. As of last week, he also led 56% to 39% amongst centrist voters who claimed not to lean toward either party.

So with all of that in mind, where do the election betting markets stand? Right now, PredictIt has the odds slanted pretty overwhelmingly in favor of Murphy; the minimum Democratic “Yes” bet price is 93 cents, which is a pretty sharp juxtaposition from the Republican “Yes” price of 8 cents.

These juxtapositions become even more pronounced when you examine the other betting markets that PredictIt has opened across the state as a whole:

  • New Jersey’s gubernatorial margin? Currently, Murphy’s bets stand at a 17 cent share that he’ll win within a 4-8% margin. 
  • Who wins Monmouth County? There’s 95 cents on Jack Ciattarelli, but 7 cents on Phil Murphy.
  • Who wins Morris County? Right now, Ciattarelli leads around 85 cents, whereas Gov. Murphy’s betting shares stand around 23 cents.
  • Who wins Gloucester County? Right now, Murphy’s betting price leads at 76 cents a share, whereas Ciattarelli’s is 34 cents a share. 

All in all, Murphy seems to have a pretty strong lead, and it’s looking pretty likely that he’ll be reelected for a second term. However, Ciattarelli’s leads and gains amongst his niche voting blocs, while likely not big enough to deliver a full-on public fade, are certainly still trends that voters and bettors on both sides of the aisle will want to watch.

Garden State voters can find their nearest polling locations on the state’s Department Of Elections' Voter Information Portal, and Garden State bettors can find out more about their area’s open betting markets and NJ betting apps by signing up for our mailing list to stay in touch!

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