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NFL DFS Divisional Round: Daily Fantasy Sports Picks, Plays, and Value
It’s the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, which means one of two things in terms of DFS: you’ll have slim pickings, and you only have a few more weeks to try and finish in the all-coveted money. DraftKings sportsbook offers the most extensive selection of DFS games and opportunities for this weekend’s game, so those are the money values I’ll be using for this.
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Matt Stafford– $6,200
I never like dumping my entire budget on a QB, so I always tend to look down the list. Being that there are only four games this weekend there’s not much “down the list” to go, but Matt Stafford comes into this week with incredible value at just over $6,000. Stafford looked great last week, connecting on only 13 passes but still managing to throw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Sure, he’ll be facing a bit tougher of a defense this week than he did last week–but the Buccaneers’ defense has allowed some huge passing games throughout the year. They’ve allowed 9 multi-touchdown games to QBs throughout the year, and 11 games where QBs threw for over 250 yards.
Just watching the Rams game last weekend, you could tell how excited they were to have Cam Akers back. They gave him 17 rushing attempts and targeted him on two passes, utilizing him much more than Sony Michel.
Mitchell will continue to see great value this week, going up against a Packers defense that allows an average of over 5 yards per carry. Mitchell exploited the weak Cowboys run defense last week, and I can see the 49ers looking to him heavily in the beginning of their game against the Packers to help establish a solid run game.
This isn’t much of a value pick (obviously) but I think the Bengals and Chase are slated for a huge game this weekend. They’ve been the hottest offense in the NFL over the past 5 weeks, and that trend should continue against the Titans. Chase has seen over 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games, and has averaged almost 10 targets a game in that stretch.
To make up for my lack of value in my last pick, I’ll give you Lazard here. In his last five games, Lazard has averaged over 6 targets and 1 touchdown per game. Combine that with a Packers offense that looks to the pass 57% of the time in the red zone, and you could have a sneaky value play with Lazard in your lineup.
ANOTHER value pick for all you clamoring for sneaky picks. The assumption here is that the Bills will be so preoccupied with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Mecole Hardman that Pringle kind of just…sneaks his way into a few catches? The targets are definitely there–he’s averaging 6 targets a game over his last 5 games, and has four total touchdowns in that stretch as well.
Listen, I’ll be honest here: There’s really no rhyme or reason to picking tight ends in DFS. You can drop 7k on Kelce and have him put up a goose egg, or you could be a sucker like me and pass up on the best TE in the NFL while he has an all-time week. BUT, if I could save myself for a bit here, Dawson Knox is still a relatively safe pick. He’s one of Josh Allen’s favorite red zone targets, made evident by his two touchdowns in last week’s blowout against the Patriots.
The defenses this week all kind of stink if I’m being honest. But the Packers offer some value, averaging over 1 forced turnover a game. The Niners have 24 turnovers on the season, and with Jimmy G at QB you can almost guarantee an interception.
This ones a big risk because it can absolutely blow up in your face, but the Bill’s defense looked great last weekend against the Patriots. The Bills faced off against the Chiefs early in the season, and forced two interceptions out of Patrick Mahomes.