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NFL MVP Futures: Latest Odds and Lines
Beyond being a deftly-physical game of clashing helmets, shoulder pads, and bodies running into one another, football is oftentimes also a mental game that demands players, coaches, and fans with stakes on the line to be as predictive as possible.
Playmaking, predicting, and prognosticating the next moves can all be easier tasks said than done, especially when so much unpredictable chaos can unfold on the gridiron so quickly. From prankster fans getting too carried away and running onto the field (ESPN), to freak accidents leading to injuries, it only takes a few seconds of frenetic, unpredictable chaos to change the course of the entire game.
Eagles’ fans and bettors who had the skin on Jalen Hurts’ viability to win the MVP Award learned this lesson the hard way through Week 16 of the NFL’s 2022-23 regular season, as the star quarterback unluckily lived up to his last name by hurting his throwing shoulder.
While it’s possible that Jalen will be able to return from his shoulder sprain for the Eagles’ inevitable playoff bid, it’s still unclear how the injury will affect his playing status over the remaining regular season games, or if Jalen Hurts will be able to come back to play through the remainder of the next two games in the first place. (PhillyVoice).
Hurts was previously the far-and-away heavy favorite to walk away with the 2023 NFL MVP Award in the eyes of the Vegas oddsmakers behind many online sportsbooks, but his injury dramatically shifted their outlook. The Eagles went from one-point to six-point dogs in the lead-up to their Week 16 face-off against Dallas (they would later go on to lose by 6-points on the dot, 34-40), and by the end of the week, Patrick Mahomes (of the Kansas City Chiefs) emerged as the heavy favorite.
Right now, Joe Burrow (of the Cincinnati Bengals) and Josh Allen (of the Buffalo Bills) are right behind Mahomes as 2023 MVP candidates to watch, but that potential MVP status is largely contingent upon whether or not both players’ teams survive their next two regular season games, effectively do-or-die elimination games that will determine whether or not they advance to the 2022-23 NFL Postseason.
(You can find the league’s most up-to-date playoff picture on their website.)
A new year is finally upon us, and so is a decisive new frontrunner for 2023’s most valuable NFL player. After the dramatic odds shake-ups that have ensued out of Weeks 16 and 17, let’s take a deeper look at the current AP NFL MVP Future odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, ahead of a rapidly approaching 2023 postseason.
NFL MVP Candidates 2023
The DraftKings playing field for the most likely NFL MVP hopefuls has narrowed down to a set of only four QBs and one WR:
Patrick Mahomes, quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs
Joe Burrow, quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals
Josh Allen, quarterback for the Buffalo Bills
Jalen Hurts, quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles
Justin Jefferson, wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings
Before we take a deeper look at the odds for each of these Top Five most valuable player picks, it’s important to understand how the league chooses its MVPs. Since 1957, the NFL MVP award has been conducted in conjunction with the Associated Press, which helps choose 50 veteran sportswriters to vote on a given year’s most valuable NFL player.
Overwhelmingly, the players selected for this award are people who play in offensive positions; up to this point, 54 out of 57 undisputed MVP winners played offense. At least 36 quarterbacks (up until this point) have ascended to MVP status, and sixteen more undisputed MVP winners were running backs. Only two defensive players have ever won the AP NFL MVP: defensive tackle Alan Page (in 1971), and linebacker Lawrence Taylor (in 1986).
One of the three non-offensive past NFL AP MVP winners was a special teams kicker, Mark Moseley in 1982, and only two players have ever won the MVP award with a unanimous vote: Tom Brady in 2010, and Lamar Jackson in 2019. While unanimous decisions are rare with the AP’s NFL MVP vote, the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook seem to agree on a unanimous consensus for the new year’s most probable new MVP pick.
NFL MVP Award Odds For 2023
While it isn’t guaranteed that he’ll ultimately win (the winner isn’t publicly announced until a day before the Super Bowl), Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is currently heavily, heavily favored to win the AP NFL MVP, by -800 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. It doesn’t seem likely that anyone else will be able to outperform Mahomes over the course of the limited time left this season, but DraftKings’ NFL futures market currently offers four more NFL MVP dark horses below Mahomes:
Joe Burrow, currently priced at +750 odds
Josh Allen, currently priced at +1000 odds
Jalen Hurts, currently priced at +1600 odds
Justin Jefferson, currently priced at +10000 odds
Both the Bengals and Bills quarterbacks are heading into what will functionally serve as elimination games. It'll be interesting to watch if either of them will be able to move the lines with the remaining regular season time left, but it’s pretty much a moonshot that either of them will. Two even heavier moonshots in this market are Jalen and Justin.
We hope Jalen will be able to retain at least one vote given how far he was able to carry the Eagles on an undefeated win streak last year. Justin also deserves at least a single honorable mention in the MVP vote, given that he was able to run for an impressive 1,771 yards this season, and complete an equally impressive 70.7% of his passes.
Unfortunately, the most probable bet to hit in this market is the least profitable. However, the odds have flipped drastically since Jalen was heavily favored, and on the slim off-chance they flip again, even just a $10 unit on one of the other four MVP frontrunners could yield a modest return.
We’d only recommend placing sensibly small wager stakes in this market, since these candidates are larger underdogs, and one of the perks of future bets is that they tend to offer longer underdog odds than other single bets. DraftKings also routinely offers its (new and existing) users extra promotional perks to place safer bets, including a huge first deposit match bonus in site credit for free bets.
DraftKings NFL MVP Market Promos
We hope you wager responsibly and have a Happy New Year!