NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Odds and Picks: Patriots vs. Falcons

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Odds and Picks: Patriots vs. Falcons
Image © Bob Breidenbach/The Providence Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK
✍️ Written by
Frank Weber
🗓 Updated
Aug 23rd 2023

The red-hot Patriots find themselves traveling to Georgia this week, taking on the Atlanta Falcons in this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football. The Patriots (6-4) have been absolutely rolling recently, winning their last four games while scoring a combined 150 points in the process. On the other hand, the Falcons (4-5) are 2-2 in their last four games and are currently coming off of their biggest loss of the season, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys.

All momentum is on the Patriots’ side--Mac Jones is starting to look like the proper heir to Tom Brady’s throne, throwing 3 touchdowns last week in just 3 quarters of play in their 45-7 trouncing of the Browns. On the other side of the ball the Patriots have been just as dominant, allowing an average of 12.5 points in their last four games. This Falcons offense offers a bit more of a challenge than some of the Patriots’ most recent opponents (i.e. Jets, Panthers, Browns) but with Calvin Ridley still out and Cordarelle Patterson limited in practice, this could be an ugly Thursday night for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions

As per BetMGM, the Patriots come into this contest as 6.5-point favorites, which is a number they have covered twice in this season already (Texans week 5, and Jets week 7). On the season the Pats have been 6-4 ATS, covering their last 4 games. The Falcons record ATS also holds true to their season record, currently standing at 4-5.

This is a tough game to call because as much as you want to take the Patriots due to their recent form, you always have to be warry when you find yourself taking a pick that’s too chalk. That being said, I think Mac Jones’ success will continue against the weak Falcons secondary, so I feel comfortable picking the Patriots and laying the 6.5 points.

Another bet that I love is Hunter Henry being an anytime TD scorer at +140, and if you’re feeling confident you could even bump that up to +800 by taking him as the first TD scorer of the game. With starting TE Jonnu Smith ruled out last week with a shoulder injury, Henry stepped in as Jones’ main red zone target and capitalized on that opportunity by scoring two touchdowns, both within the 20-yard line. As long as Jonnu Smith remains on the sidelines, Henry looks to be a safe pick for at least one score in the game.

If you are more interested in the live betting aspect of sports gambling, be sure to check out these live betting tips and tricks.

All in all, here’s what my slip will look like going into Thursday night’s game:

  • Patriots -6.5 (-110)
  • Hunter Henry Anytime TD Scorer (+140)
  • Hunter Henry First TD Scorer (+800)
  • Any Patrtiots Defensive Player Anytime TD Scorer (+550)
  • Matt Ryan over 0.5 interceptions (-160)
  • Atlanta Falcons Under 17.5 points (+125)
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