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Presidential Election Predictions: How 2022 Has ALREADY Shaken Up The 2024 Landscape
The 2022 midterm elections are still very much underway, with votes still being casted, counted, and tabulated as of this very moment. Both parties still have both chambers of Congress very much in play, with the Democrats likely to retain their Senate majority, and the GOP likely to just barely eke out a narrow House majority.
Both of these outcomes, however, are still very much in play and very much still up in the air. When you consider that FiveThirtyEight’s popular, nonpartisan polling aggregate had Republicans at a 59 percent chance of winning the Senate and a staggering 84 percent shot at taking Congress earlier this year, it’s quite an incredible subversion of expectations.
It’s quite a fascinating, remarkable subversion that the national race to the majority is still this close and contentious. Contrary to what certain pollsters, mainstream pundits, and prediction market prognosticators would have had you believe, this election cycle was decisively not a “Red Wave.”
Across the board, there has been a number of historic pro-choice, pro-democracy, and pro-progressive wins, including the elections of Summer Lee (PA-12), the first black Congresswoman to represent the state of Pennsylvania, and Maxwell Frost (FL-10), the nation’s first ever Gen-Z member of Congress.
Beyond a myriad of more progressive candidates securing victories, a number of progressive ballot initiatives secured crucial victories as well. Oregon seems likely to pass Measure 111, which would enshrine the right to healthcare in its state constitution (Ballotpedia). Furthermore, Colorado continued to lead the national fight against regressive Drug War policies by passing a measure that would decriminalize the use of psychedelic psilocybin mushrooms. (ABC News)
But no matter which way House control ultimately skews (it’s still likely to lean Republican), it will be a very narrow majority for either the GOP or DNC. So will the Senate: it’s probable that control of that chamber could come down to the Georgia runoff elections next month.
Since the third-party vote prevented the two more prominent candidates from reaching the required +50% threshold of the vote, incumbent Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker will both need to compete for that magic number in 4 weeks. If you’re a Georgia resident, you can visit the state’s MVP Portal to check your voter registration status.
Even with control of both chambers still being neck-and-neck and still very much up in the air, the midterm results so far are already appearing to present significant shake-ups in the early predictions for the 2024 general elections, even on the presidential front. Let’s cover how the odds have shifted before the midterm elections, and where they could shift after the midterms.
Kalshi Midterm Predictions/Midterm Polling Errors
Prior to the November 8th start of the 2022 midterm elections, popular outlets like Bloomberg pondered if the polling errors of the 2020 general election cycle would repeat themselves again through this cycle. Even though Joe Biden would go on to handily win the presidency, with 7 million more votes than his Republican challenger, prior-incumbent Donald Trump, pollsters still vastly overestimated Democratic odds in a number of smaller electoral races around the country.
Instead, the opposite trend seems to have occurred through this cycle, with multiple pollsters appearing to have underestimated the enthusiasm that Democrats and Independents would have around key issues like LGBTQIA+ rights, reproductive freedoms, and voting rights. Many of them had also underestimated the historic turnout of youth voters, which would go on to be the second highest out of any midterm election in three decades, as outlets like NPR have reported.
That 538 aggregate alone perfectly illustrates the stark juxtaposition between the expected, predicted pre-midterm results versus the outcomes that seem to be actively playing out in reality. Beyond the professional pollsters, many of the Average Joe prognosticators with financial skin in the game got it wrong too.
Although PredictIT’s platform may cease its operations after this cycle, it’s still worth examining their pre and post-election data to give you a better idea of just how hard the odds have subverted this cycle. On Monday, November 7th, the day just before Election Day, PredictIT saw the Senate as being nearly just as much of a deep red, Republican lock as 538 did the House.
(See this graph for a larger visualization.)
The day before, those shares were priced at 74 cents on the Democratic side, and 31 cents on the Republican side. That dynamic had skewed around substantially come Election Day itself: R share prices stunningly plummeted from just under three quarters to just under one, at a meager 19 cents per share. On the flip side, Democratic shares skyrocketed up to a whole two quarters, with D prices surging from 31 cents to 81 cents.
Right now, PredictIT has its largest balance of power “Yes” price skewed at 83 cents toward the most probable outcome (as of now), a Republican House and Democratic Senate. Regardless of how those outcomes ultimately shake out, they already seem to be shaking up the electoral odds ahead of 2024, even all the way up to the presidential stage. Let’s take a closer look at how these trends are showing themselves in other polls and prediction markets.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
One of the palpable trends that people have watched unfold over the course of these midterm elections has been the streak of new, Trump-backed candidates repeatedly losing their electoral bids. Granted, not all of them have flopped just yet. For instance, J.D. Vance won the Ohio Senate race against Tim Ryan by six whole percentage points.
Though their chances are bigger tossups, both Kari Lake and Herschel Walker are still within striking distance of potentially winning their respective races. Even so, 14 other Trump-endorsed candidates have most likely lost (ABC News), potentially indicating that the former President’s mounting controversies have finally become too unpalatable to the broader American electorate, as well as the optics and branding of the candidates hoping to win their vote.
This has caused a seismic shift and massive in-party divide in who the Republican base feels is their most probable, and most viable 2024 nominee. One of the biggest potential alternatives the GOP is mulling over has been Florida’s governor, Ronald Dion “DeSanctimonious” DeSantis. Since the midterms, Ron DeSantis’ odds have risen two cents over Trump’s for the 2024 Republican nomination, and they currently lead five cents over Joe Biden’s to win the 2024 presidential race outright on PredictIT.
On the Canadian iteration of BetMGM, which allows political betting as well as sports betting, DeSantis currently leads the 2024 U.S. election futures (across all parties) at +225 odds. Shortly after the midterms, President Biden declared his intentions to run again to the press (Reuters), but it still remains to be seen if any other strong Democratic challengers will emerge to challenge him in the primary.
Still, the Republican Party’s future presidential hopes are even more uncertain and even more up in the air right now. DeSantis has emerged as the clearer polling and political betting favorite for now, and it’s possible that Trump’s mounting legal woes could clear the path for Ron to get the GOP nomination. But the same thing could potentially be said of DeSantis himself, as he and his administration still face ongoing scrutiny surrounding their controversial stunt at Martha’s Vineyard. (Reuters)
As the 2024 playing field has drastically shifted over the course of the 2022 midterms, it’s still possible that it could shift even further between now and then. If the Senate odds can completely tilt on their head over the course of a day, who’s to say that the presidential odds can’t? We’ll keep you posted on the political market shifts between now and 2024, and in the meantime, we’ve found a new election market potentially worth a look, which should fully get the ball rolling just in time for 2024.
Kalshi Election Markets
Kalshi is a prediction market platform that we’ve spotlighted in the past for allowing you to trade contracts regarding the potential outcomes of a lot of things; by a lot of things, we mean a lot lot of things. From the weather through the Grammy’s, the platform has only really lagged behind in offering electoral prediction markets - until now.
Unfortunately, it’s a little too late to get in on their free-to-play election forecast action to win 100k for the most accurate Senate picks, and a little too early to get in subsequent elections just yet. But you better believe that they’ll hit the ground running - just in time for 2024!
How Kalshi Works
Kalshi enables its users to buy up shares for predicting the outcomes of major world events. For every correct contract share they purchase, they’ll earn a dollar in profit come market close. Although the availability of their election markets is limited as of now, it’s reasonable to assume that they’ll operate in a similar fashion as their other prediction markets.
Read our review to learn more about Kalshi ahead of 2024, and sign up here to claim any welcome offers that open up ahead of 2024.