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Super Bowl 2023 Prop Bets: Locks and Long Shots To Like
This will not surprise anyone, but there’s going to be a staggering amount of money bet on this Sunday’s Super Bowl 57.
ESPN.com reported, “A record 50.4 million adults in the United States -- roughly 20% of the population -- are expected to combine to bet approximately $16 billion on Super Bowl LVII, according to survey results released Tuesday by the American Gaming Association.”
The New York Times adds: “Bets on specific outcomes, like the length of the national anthem, are expected to account for half of the billions wagered on the Super Bowl in the United States.”
Some sportsbooks have come up with at least 2,000 Super Bowl prop bets. I’ve looked at most of them and many bettors will fall prey to the false promise that these wildly creative bets will come through. Bollocks.
I’ve picked four bets that look promising to me and let’s start with my two locks:
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles, OVER 34.5 rushing + receiving yards
The current price (-125) is courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the best sports betting sites in the business, along with many more.
Also, be sure to check out our guide to online casinos, from Pennsylvania to New Jersey. You can place all your Super Bowl prop bets all over the country.
If you’re a newbie to sports betting, but want to get in on the action, no problem. We’ve got you covered with our two handy cheat sheets: Sports Betting Basics and How to Bet on Sports Online.
OK, so about Gainwell, I think you will gain well by making this bet.
In Philadelphia’s blowout win over San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game, he had 14 carries for 48 yards, along with two receptions for 26 yards.
That’s 74 yards right there. The week before, in the Eagles’ blowout win over the Giants he rushed for 112 yards on just 12 carries and caught one pass for another nine yards. Total: 121.
So, in two playoff games, he’s averaged 97.5 total yards. What the hell am I missing?! Nothing. Book this one right now. I think it’s the biggest freebie on the props menu.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs, Longest Reception UNDER 22.5 Yards
Look, I love Kelce – his brother and his mama and papa, too – and I’ve written nearly a month ago that Travis was a great bet to become the first tight end in Super Bowl history to be named the game’s MVP. His odds have gone from +2800 to +2400 and are now down to +1200. Sure hope you got in on that.
I expect him to have a great game, but as remarkable as he’s been during the regular season and playoffs, he doesn’t make huge, long plays and I’m certain the Eagles’ stout D will make sure he doesn’t bust a big one.
Of Kelce’s 110 catches this season, only 19 have been for 20 or more yards. In his last four games, including Kansas City’s two playoff wins, he hasn’t had a reception over 16 yards. Philly is going to keep him at bay as best as it can, so I don’t see a 23-yard-plus reception on Sunday. Plus, the price is nice (+105).
Eagles OVER 2.5 Total Sacks
Philadelphia has 70 sacks so far this season, including the playoffs, and are just five away from breaking the all-time NFL record set by the ferocious 1984-85 Super Bowl-dominating Bears.
They’ll be motivated to break that record and will be harassing Mahomes (how healthy is his ankle, really?) all game long. Between three and five sacks sounds about right and the odds are -140.
Will There Be an Octopus? YES
If that’s Greek to you (mmm, grilled polypus), here’s an explanation of what that is and I agree with my colleague that a touchdown and a two-point conversion is completely plausible, albeit not likely, in a Super Bowl that could turn into a shootout.
But, hey, the odds are fabulous (+1400 according to DK) so sprinkle a little at this.
Chiefs QB Chad Henne to Win MVP
Crazy idea, I know, but hear me out. Let’s say Patrick Mahomes’s ankle isn’t 100 percent and let’s say he somehow goes down and out early in the first quarter. That would mean 37-year-old, 13-year veteran backup Henne would get the call of duty. What if he had a serviceable game and guided the Chiefs to a comeback victory or any sort of win, really? Wouldn’t he be the game’s MVP, barring a historic game from Kelce?
Henne is currently listed at +10000 at FanDuel Sportsbook. I’d say no more than ten to twenty bucks on that but ya never know.
Best of luck on Super Sunday and please gamble responsibly. Remember, wagering should be fun, not soul- or wallet-crushing.