Taking An Early Season Look At The MLB MVP Favorites

Taking An Early Season Look At The MLB MVP Favorites
Image ©Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Frank Weber
Frank Weber
May 22nd 2023

We’re a third of the way through the MLB season and I’m already thinking about the MVP winners…maybe my therapist was right and I do have a problem living in the moment.

Well, psychology aside, predicting MVP winners is more fun than it is harmful, so why not take a look at the mid-season odds?

I’ll show you the ten players from each league that have the best odds at taking home the MVP, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, as well as a quick blurb on a few guys from each league that I feel pose more of a threat than the others.

So, let’s get started.

2023 AL MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani (-125)

Aaron Judge (+800)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr (+1200)

Mike Trout (+2000)

Yordan Alvarez (+2500)

Wander Franco (+3000)

Randy Arozarena (+3000)

Adley Rutschman (+3500)

Yandy Diaz (+3500)

Rafael Devers (+5000)

So, clearly, FanDuel favors Ohtani, and honestly, I can’t blame them. He’s been consistently producing from both behind the plate and on the mound, holding an ERA of 3.05 and an average of .287. He’s got 80 strikeouts through ten starts and is currently leading the AL in K/9 (12.2). On the flip side of things, he’s smashed 11 homers and driven in 32 runs all while stealing six bases. 

If the season ends today, Ohtani wins the MVP tenfold. But, unfortunately for him, the season is just getting started, so here are a few other guys that are worth your attention.

Aaron Judge (+800)

We saw what Judge had to do last year in order to beat out Ohtani, and that was setting a new AL single-season home run record. While I recognize he won’t do that again this year, he’s still piecing together a great season. He’s hitting just under .300 and has 13 home runs and 32 RBIs to show for it. He has a MLB-leading OPS of 1.042, and he the and the Yankees are RED hot coming into June. If he can keep up the pace (and Ohtani slows down, of course) he’ll be a real threat at repeating MVP wins.

Randy Arozarena (+3000)

While the Rays have cooled off a bit from their early season winning streak, Randy Arozarena has continued to produce. He’s hitting .304 with 10 home runs and 36 RBIs, currently holding an OBP of over .400. While it’s not as seductive as an Aaron Judge or Shoehei Ohtani MVP bet, Arozarena is quietly putting together career numbers this year.

2023 NL MVP Odds

Ronald Acuna Jr (+140)

Pete Alonso (+1300)

Mookie Betts (+1500)

Juan Soto (+1600)

Bryce Harper (+2000)

Freddie Freeman (+2000)

Paul Goldschmidt (+2000)

Fernando Tatis Jr (+2500)

Max Muncy (+2500)

Sean Murphy (+2500)

While FanDuel doesn’t see the NL as clearly as they are seeing the AL, they still are backing their favorite Ronald Acuna Jr–and again, I can’t blame them. Acuna, when healthy, makes baseball look so easy. He’s hitting .344 with 11 home runs and 27 RBIs, with 44 runs and 18 steals as well. While I think Acuna deserves the best odds at winning MVP, the bet does not come without its risks. Acuna is an injury liability, so I suggest hedging your bet a bit with a bet on some of these guys as well.

Pete Alonso (+1300)  

Look out Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso is coming for the New York baseball crown. Pete’s got an MLB-leading 17 home runs, an NL-leading 41 RBIs, and a .528 slugging percentage. The only thing bringing him down is his average, currently sitting a .228. If he can bump up that average and continue to hit bombs, then I expect Alonso’s odds to drop dramatically. 

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