Teofimo Lopez vs George Kambosos Jr. Fight Prediction: Does Kambosos Stand a Chance?

Teofimo Lopez vs George Kambosos Jr. Fight Prediction: Does Kambosos Stand a Chance?
Image © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Frank Weber
Frank Weber
May 19th 2023

Short Answer: Probably not.

Long Answer: ...Let’s take a look.

Normally, this fight would be easy to call. Currently the Lightweight belt-holder in three divisions, Teofimo Lopez comes into this fight against the undefeated George Kambosos Jr. as the heavy favorite, currently sitting at -1000 to win on several sportsbooks. His last fight (albeit a year ago) was one of the best performances of his career, beating the formerly undefeated champ Vasiliy Lomenchenko. Lopez was able to successfully work the body and practically control the first half of the fight, and ended with a bang by landing 50 punches in the last round alone. Boxing fans have been eagerly awaiting Lopez’s return for over a year, and with his fight now only days away the hype seems to be at an all-time high.

When: Saturday, November 27th | Main Card: 8PM EST | Main Event Walkouts: Approx 11PM EST

Where: DAZN

So, you may be asking yourself--where is the hesitation? Let me show you.

One of the greatest things about boxing is the old cliche “anything can happen.” And if you look at some of the biggest boxing fights in the last few years, the cliche is given some validity.

Let’s look back to June 2019--Anthony Joshua is a -2500 favorite against his opponent Andy Ruiz and nobody bats an eye. Sure, it helped that Ruiz looked more like a fan than he did a real opponent, but Ruiz shut up all the haters (and the bookmakers) by finishing Joshua in the seventh round.

Fast forward a few months and we almost see The Gypsy King fall, after Tyson Fury narrowly edges out a victory against the undefeated Sweed Otto Wallin who stood at +1210. Almost a year later we see Vasiliy Lomenchenko fall to the one and only Teofimo Lopez (who took to the ring as a +330 underdog), and then just a few months ago we saw Oleksander Usyk shock the world by beating Anthony Joshua (sensing a trend here?)

Listen, all I’m saying is these things happen--and before you go taking the monstrous -1000 odds for Lopez to walk away the victor, it’s important to think things through. George Kambosos Jr. is a young, hungry competitor who has shown some real promise in the ring. He narrowly won his last two fights via split decision, but prior to that he had won four fights via KO/TKO so we know he has punching power. If Kambosos can stay poised and relatively untouched within the first half of the fight, he has a real shot at shaking things up in those later rounds.

Only thing is, that’s a huge IF.

Ultimately, I believe Teofimo Lopez will be able to get it done against Kambosos Jr, but I would avoid that -1000 bet because the money you would have to lay down just to see a significant profit is not worth the risk. I think there’s greater potential to be found in the prop bets, where you can find the fight standing at +240 to go the distance. You can even get some great odds on Teofimo Lopez to win by Unanimous Decision, which is currently at +400. You could even play it safe and hedge your bets by taking a look at the winning round groupings, which currently stand as such:

Round 1-6: +160

Round 7-12: +150

There’s a lot more to betting boxing than picking winners, because if one thing is for sure: you never know what’s going to happen in the ring.

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