The Kalshi Betting Market Year In Review

The Kalshi Betting Market Year In Review
Sarah Ryan
Author:
Sarah Ryan
Updated: 
January 3rd 2023

Another year is upon us, and so are another 12 months and 365 days of predictable and not-so-predictable outcomes. If you have a panache for following predictable trends, you could stand to turn a potential profit off those predictions with Kalshi! Kalshi is a prediction market platform that enables you to bet on almost anything. 

Even if sports aren’t your bag, Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated platform still allows you to stand the chance of making a bag off trading event contract shares regarding the outcomes of things like weather forecasts, entertainment award winners, or the specific numbers that different economic markets will close out on. If you own any contract shares that end up coming to fruition, you’ll be paid out a dollar for each correct contract share you own. 

The platform offers some of the most diversified prediction market options in the business right now, enabling users to trade on events unfolding over the course of a day, week, month, and year. Even though we’ve just entered the first month of a new year, now's as good a time as any to look ahead at the Kalshi markets for the end of the month, as well as the end of the year, as well as contracts that are about to settle with the start of our new year.

Without any further delay, let’s take a closer look at where Kalshi’s yearly and monthly prediction markets are priced right now.

Yearly Kalshi Event Contracts

At the moment, Kalshi currently has 19 annual event contract markets open on their platform. A considerably large share of those contract share markets is dedicated to following how the state of the economy will shake out this year, honing in on key metrics like inflation, unemployment numbers, Fed rate cuts, the growth of an economy's gross domestic product, and the value of fuel and energy commodities. You’ll also be able to trade yearly contract shares on key outcomes like:

  • The annual close prices of the NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500

  • The water levels rising or falling in Lake Mead, from 1024-1050 ft.

  • The state of local economics in the US, the EU, and China

  • The end-of-year approval rating of the Biden Administration

The prices of the share contracts in each of these markets are reflective of the perceived probability or likelihood of a particular outcome happening. For example, you won’t see a very high return with event contract shares priced at 99 cents, but that means that the outcome is perceived to have an incredibly high likelihood of happening.

You can trade inside a market’s central range, or hedge and arbitrage your event contract shares from different positions. It might be a little overwhelming for new Kalshi users to know where to even begin trading annual markets on the platform, given that there are so many potential ways you could start. That said, most of these markets can be understood through the simplified framework of three distinct categories:

  1. Economics

You can currently snag 66 cent event contract shares on the United States’ annual nominal GDP growth, indicating that Kalshi’s market traders might be expecting a slightly more optimistic economic outlook through 2023. Despite the issues we’ve seen with inflation, economic markets on GDP still appear to be settling on an optimistic note. In general, Kalshi’s community seems to expect a more lucrative, growth-filled year for major economies around the world. 

Overall global GDP growth seems to be leaning on the up and up, with a 50-cent valuation on contract shares saying that it will have increased by 3% or more. The GDP peak market for 2022’s fiscal quarter is also closing on a more optimistic note, with 99 cents on the shares priced outside the range of peaking at 5.1% or higher.

The European Union also seems to be closing out its fiscal year on an optimistic note, with 55-cent pricing on the shares of its GDP rising over 3%. China’s GDP is closing out the year at a high point, with just shy of three quarters (74 cents) priced on the contracts predicting a GDP growth upwards of 4% or greater. But while many major economies around the world have seen a major upswing in GDP growth, they’ve also seen a major upswing in rising inflation rates.

We are ending the 2022 fiscal year with some inordinately high peak inflation rates seen across most major global economies. This news shouldn’t come as any surprise to anyone who’s had to buy groceries or gas within the past year, but you might be surprised at how high some of those peaks ended up peaking. 

In Kalshi’s annual market for Euro Area inflation in 2022, the highest priced position at the moment is 90 cents on the EU’s inflation peaking higher than 9%. There’s also a 51-cent valuation on Chinese inflation peaking higher than 3%, and a whopping 95 cents on U.S. inflation peaking between 6.0% and 6.9% in 2022. 

Looking ahead to 2023, we have 60 cent shares on the Federal Reserve experiencing a rate cut before 2024, 16 cents on the NASDAQ-100 closing at 11500 minimum, and 25 cents on the S&P 500 closing above 5300. Looking ahead to our next market category, we have a 91-cent “State of The Economy” market, indicating that the past fiscal year will most likely end with 4% unemployment and 7% inflation.

  1. Employment

The yearly “unemployment spike” event contract market is ending with 99 cents outside the peak range of 6.1% or above. Although unemployment didn’t appear to hit the worst possible peak in 2022, the outlook also wasn’t the best. The fiscal year’s “unemployment keeps falling” market is settling with a 92% probability outside the range of it falling below 3.4%.

The employment-population ratio contract for 2022 is also ending within the pricing of 99 cents outside the range of being greater than 80.4%, indicating that the last year was still a difficult year for workers. Beyond trading on the American economy’s employment numbers, Kalshi’s platform also allows you to trade on the approval of America’s highest employee. 

As we start the new year, you can currently buy 54-cent shares on the event contracts predicting that President Biden will end the year with a 538 approval rating above 43%. His approval is currently floating just above that percentage, at 43.4%, but he needs to end the year above that range for the market to settle. As you watch whether his rating falls below that range or above that range, keep an eye open for new Kalshi political betting markets ahead of 2024, as the company recently announced it's intentions to open new election markets following approval.

  1. Oil and Water

Resources and major commodities are another common market category found on Kalshi. Lake Mead and the Colorado River are important water reservoirs for the southwestern, and reservoirs that have seen a myriad of unfortunate issues with drying and droughts. As reported by CNN, Lake Mead’s water level has receded over 170 feet since 2000, and unfortunately, the Kalshi community doesn’t anticipate this issue getting any better in 2023.

For 54 cents a share, Kalshi’s yearly markets are projecting that Lake Mead’s water levels will most likely end the year at a height lower than or equal to 1030 feet. Of course, this could potentially change by the end of the year, just as its too early in the year to assess where Kalshi’s peak natural gas markets could peak in price. But right now, the platform has opened its yearly “Natural gas low” event contract market on 50/50 coin flip odds, with a 50-cent valuation on the event contract shares predicting that its price will fall below $3.49 in 2023.

It can be tough to discern where the prices of commodities and other event contracts could settle a year out from now. But what about a month out from now?  

Monthly Kalshi Exchange Markets

Right now, all of Kalshi’s monthly markets mean business, and we really do mean business. The two biggest themes of the seven monthly markets presently open on Kalshi are inflation numbers and employment numbers.

Kalshi hasn’t yet opened most of its monthly markets for January 2023, but you can take a look for yourself at the contract prices where the central ranges of Kalshi’s seven December markets will most likely settle:

  1. Core inflation higher than 0.2%: 49 cents

  2. Inflation higher than 0.2%: 67 cents

  3. Jobs numbers 100000-199999: 33 cents

  4. Unemployment higher than 3.7%: 60 cents

  5. Year-over-year inflation over 6.4%: 49 cents

  6. Y.O.Y. core inflation over 5.1%: 99 cents

  7. Core PCE inflation over 0.1% 99 cents 

You’ll still have to wait at least a week and a half before most of Kalshi’s monthly markets refresh for January, but in the meanwhile, you can read our full in-depth review of Kalshi’s prediction market to get a better feel for the platform. 

We hope you trade responsibly and have a happy New Year!

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