The Most Profitable Moneyline Teams in the NFL So Far This Season
One of the peculiar things about sports betting is that sometimes the best teams in the league are not the best teams to bet on. A team can go a perfect 17-0 in the regular season, yet produce fewer units than a team with half as many wins. When looking at spread betting it's easier to understand--a team could win every game by just one or two points and never cover the spread, but continue to win the games. However, when you're looking at moneyline betting one might think that the best teams in the league would be the most profitable, and the worst teams would be the least. In reality, this is not always the case. Lets take a look:
Let's say Team A wins 6 games and were heavy favorites to win all 6. Their odds could've been -250, -150, -400, -180, -200, and -135--that would net a profit of +3.12 units. Now let's say Team B wins only 3 games, yet are an underdog in all 3 wins. So they would lose three units from the three losses but could make up for that loss by winning games with odds like +140, +350, and +225. That would net a profit of 4.15 units--which is over a full unit more profitable than Team A, who is 3 games ahead of them in the standings.
By calculating all the units gained and lost by every NFL team so far this season (in terms of straight moneyline bets) I have compiled a complete ranking of the most profitable Moneyline teams in the NFL. Here's what it looks like 15 weeks into the season. If you want to ride these stats and place some bets, click HERE to find the best sportsbooks available in your area.
1. Tennessee Titans +8.42 u (9-4)
The Titans have been the most profitable money-line team so far this season, and to be completely honest it's not even close. If you had bet $100 on every Titans game so far this season, you would net a profit of $842, which is a pretty good return on investment. Most of this profit is due to the 6 game win streak they went on in the middle of the season, which saw them winning as the underdog four times. Their biggest upset came during that stretch, which was a win over the Rams when the Titans were +290 underdogs.
2. Arizona Cardinals +6.95 u (10-3)
In what should come as a surprise to no one, the Cardinals find themselves a podium spot in the most profitable team Olympics. When you win 10 games it's hard to NOT be profitable, but you have to give credit where credit is due because the Cardinals very rarely found themselves as an underdog. Their biggest upset win was a win over the Niners in Week 9, where they found themselves as a +195 underdog.
3. Los Angeles Chargers +2.64 u (8-5)
This is where things take a bit of a dip, as the Chargers round out the top three after falling over 4 units from the second-place Cardinals. Almost all of the Charger's moneyline success this year is thanks to a +245 win over the Chiefs in week three, seeing as how without that win the Chargers would find themselves in the red.
4. Las Vegas Raiders +2.34 u (6-7)
Thanks to some huge upset wins in Weeks 1, 2, 6 and 12 the Raiders find themselves as a rare sub-.500 team to have over a two-unit profit throughout the season. Their biggest upset win came in Week 12, where they beat the Cowboys 36-33 in overtime. They were +275 dogs that game, but couldn't capitalize on that momentum by losing their next two.
5. Green Bay Packers +2.28 u (10-3)
The Packers have only been underdogs in four games this season, and have been able to pull out wins in three of them. This greatly helps their net profit on the season, which is usually buffeted by being a highly favored team. The Packers also have the best record against the spread on the season (11-2) so they have been a gambler's best friend throughout the year.
6. Dallas Cowboys +2.02 u (9-4)
Similar to the Packers, the Cowboys have had very few chances to grab high-profit wins as underdogs. However, they were an incredibly consistent team in the beginning of the season, which accumulated itself into a nice profit. Add on a +178 upset win against Minnesota in Week 7, and you've got yourself a nice chunk of change.
7. Washington Football Team +1.64 u (6-7)
Washington just got out of a 4 game win-streak, where they have found themselves to be the underdog in all four games. This has helped their profit greatly, seeing as how before this 4-game stretch they were in a 4-game skid where they lost four in a row. The Football team close out the season playing games where they will most likely be the underdogs, so this number may very easily change.
8. New England Patriots +1.57 u (9-4)
Despite being an underdog in only four games this season, the Patriots find themselves amongst the top ten by playing consistent football, beating the teams they're supposed to beat, and sprinkling in some upsets along the way. A very Patriots way to do things, but if it 'ain't broke, don't fix it.
9. Cincinnati Bengals +1.06 u (7-6)
The Bengals have dropped some close games that have hindered this number greatly, but have been consistent enough to stay in the green throughout the year. It helps that they were underdogs in the beginning of the season due to the fact that no one knew they would actually be competitive, but have generally struggled in the second half of the season so this number is trending down.
10. Denver Broncos +0.89 u (7-6)
The Broncos round out our top-10 most profitable teams in the NFL, and have a huge upset win against he Cowboys in the middle of the season to thank for it. They were +365 underdogs, which is one of the biggest upsets in the entire NFL season. Denver has a tough final stretch of their schedule, so I expect this number to dip a bit by seasons end.
Here are how the rest of the teams rank up.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers +0.88 u
12. Baltimore Ravens +0.56 u
13. Los Angeles Rams +0.50 u
14. Atlanta Falcons +0.13 u
15. Miami Dolphins +0.11 u
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +0.00 u
17. Indianapolis Colts -0.04 u
18. Kansas City Chiefs -0.61 u
19. New Orleans Saints -0.76 u
20. San Francisco 49ers -1.22 u
21. Philadelphia Eagles -1.63 u
22. Minnesota Vikings -1.76 u
23. New York Giants -1.88 u
24. Cleveland Browns -1.93 u
25. Carolina Panthers -2.25 u
26. Jacksonville Jaguars -2.40 u
27. New York Jets -2.50 u
28. Buffalo Bills -3.35 u
29. Seattle Seahawks -4.1 u
30. Chicago Bears -4.73 u
31. Houston Texans -5.85 u
32. Detriot Lions -10.4 u