Thursday Night Football Betting Rundown
We’ve already covered some of the best prop picks ahead of tonight’s Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers. Both teams have had to contend with significant struggles over the prior nine weeks.
The Falcons are coming off a brutal, razor-thin, field goal sized 20-17 loss against the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, and are currently 4-5 this season overall. Likewise, the Panthers have slogged significantly and are just barely floating above water this season, with a dismal 2-7 record placing them far down at the bottom of the NFL’s current NFC South standings.
(You can visit the NFL website to view the league’s most up-to-date division standings.)
Unlike ATL’s narrow defeat to LA, the Panthers got absolutely shellacked this past Sunday, suffering a crushing 42-21 defeat against the Cincinnati Bengals on their home turf. Contrary to their team’s namesake, Carolina has been far from the apex predator this season, continually falling prey to crushing loss after loss.
But now that the Panthers have returned to their home turf, is it possible that they can pounce back against Atlanta? Since we’ve already covered the best potential props tonight, let’s take the time to cover the spread, moneyline, over/under, and the best risk-free sportsbook promos to make use of those prop picks.
Thursday Night Football Odds
Right now on FanDuel, as of this writing, the Atlanta Falcons are currently priced as -146 favorites on the moneyline, with the Panthers priced as +124 marginal underdogs. On paper, on the chalk, on whatever apropo betting metric you see fit, this seems like a fair assessment from the oddsmakers.
When you factor in that the Falcons have an objectively more favorable record this season than Carolina, but are currently coming off a loss and having three key defensive talents injured on the bench (the Panthers are only down two), it makes perfect sense that they would be slightly favored in this matchup.
Likewise, when you take into account that:
The Panthers have fewer injuries on their lineup
Carolina’s two wins this season were at home
Their biggest win this season was a home game
It obviously makes sense that the Panthers would only be slight dogs in this particular fight, despite their less-than-stellar overall performance this year. But will that home-field advantage be enough to carry Carolina to another big win against Atlanta, just like the team’s astronomical 21-3 decimation against Brady’s Buccaneers?
Let’s take a closer look at where the implied probabilities and public money handles currently stand.
Thursday Night Football Moneyline/TNF Spread Picks
According to Dimers’ computer algorithm, which simulates the potential outcomes of sporting events 10,000 times over, the Atlanta Falcons currently have a solid 61 percent implied probability to win the moneyline and tonight’s game outright. This is despite their team’s injuries and the other team’s possible home-field advantage (debatable, as the Panthers are heading into this matchup with a 39% implied probability).
But despite the stark contrast in those implied probabilities, with one team having just under 2/3rds of a chance at victory and the other having just over 1/3rd, the spread is currently more of a tossup. Dimers’ algorithm currently approximates a 50/50 shot that the spread could go either way, between a narrow +2.5 or -2.5 margin.
Vegas (and FanDuel) both anticipate a close, contentious matchup, which means that the spread might be too close to call. However, the moneyline probability is still heavily slanted in favor of the Falcons, and according to DraftKings’ internal betting splits, 79% of their sportsbook handle money is being wagered in favor of Atlanta to cover the spread.
Read our full review to learn more about what DraftKings’ Sportsbook has to offer. It only takes as much as a field goal for either team to cover, so make of those implied probabilities and public money handles what you will. With all of that said, here’s how the over/under is holding up ahead of tonight’s matchup.
Thursday Night Football Under / Over
The Falcons and the Panthers are heading into tonight’s game with a diametrically opposite over/under record. Atlanta has had 5 out of their 9 games so far this season hit the over, whereas Carolina has had 5 out of their 9 games go under. Ahead of tonight’s game, Dimers’ implied probability is slightly leaning over, predicting that the game has a 53% chance of exceeding the bookmaker’s 41.5-point total.
Like the spread, predicting tonight’s total might be another tough, close call. But that aforementioned DraftKings blog found a few more betting trends that could potentially be of note tonight:
Roughly 56% of the handle is currently betting on the over
Four of Atlanta’s road games this season have gone over
Both teams are playing off a short week, a trend favoring the under
Charlotte might see some inclement weather favoring the under
With two game trends leaning over and two more game time trends potentially leaning under, once again, make of them what you will.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Trying to cook up a sweet same-game parlay ahead of tonight’s game, alongside any single bets for the total, spread, or moneyline? Take a look at Frank’s best bet guide ahead of tonight’s 8:16 ET kickoff at Bank of America Stadium. Then, if you’re a first-time FanDuel user, take a look at these two great risk-free promos, one to insure your singles, and another to insure your SGPs.
FanDuel TNF No Sweat Same Game Parlay
FanDuel has a hefty no-sweat first bet offer for new users, refunding your first wager on the sportsbook in site credit if it loses. On Thursdays, they also run TNF no sweat same game parlay promos, refunding 3+ leg SGPs in free bets if they lose.