Trust The Data: Bank On These Opening Day Predictions To Come To Fruition On Thursday

Trust The Data: Bank On These Opening Day Predictions To Come To Fruition On Thursday
Image ©Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
Frank Weber
Frank Weber
May 19th 2023

If you’re an OddsSeeker reader, then you probably already know–I’m a bit of a baseball nerd. I’ve been writing about baseball since the Super Bowl ended, but I’ve been THINKING about baseball since the World Series ended, so seeing as Opening Day is this Thursday, March 30th, it’s fair to assume that I’m excited. 

I am excited about baseball, yes, but also happy to upgrade my baseball nerd status to baseball geek. That’s right, I’m diving in head-first to baseball this year, and you’ll all be around to watch it happen. 

This year, I’m taking a page out of Barstool Sports employee Steven Cheah’s book, and I’m trusting the data. I’ll be doing extensive data leading up to big MLB games, and giving out my best insights all according to the numbers. 

You’ll be getting my first batch of data points here, but since the odds on this Thursday’s games have not been released yet, these will just be pointers.

Once odds are released, you’ll be sure to find them on any of these online casinos.

So, without further to do, let’s check the data.

1. The Mets Should Grill The Marlins

Before we even get into Scherzer’s success against the Marlins, let’s take a step back and just look at the Mets on Opening Day as a whole. The Mets have won 9 of their last 11 Opening Day games, while the Marlins are just 4-7 in their last 11. The Mets and Marlins have faced off on Opening Day three separate times, and the Mets have come out on top in each of the three contests. 

Need more convincing? Max Scherzer, the Opening Day starter for the Mets, holds a record of 15-5 with an ERA of 2.94 against the Marlins across 26 games. While none of those games have been for the Mets, it should make Mets’ fans more comfortable knowing that Sandy Alcantara, the Opening Day starter for the Marlins, has struggled against the Mets in recent contests.  

Alcantara is 3-5 on his career against the Mets, with an ERA 2.97. However, in his four starts against the Mets, he’s just 1-1 and has given up 10 earned runs. Alcantara has averaged less just over five strikeouts in his last four games against the Mets as well, so keep an eye on that strikeout prop. 

Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has also found success against Alcantara in the past, hitting .304 with a home run and six RBIs against the 2021 Cy Young. 

2. Look For A Pitcher’s Dual Between The Dodgers and The Diamondbacks

The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are facing off at 10:10 PM EST on Opening Day, and the data foresees a pitcher's dual. The Diamondbacks are sending out Zac Gallen who had a breakout season in 2022. Despite a 1-2 record all-time against the Dodgers, Gallen has found much recent success against LA’s premier team (for now). Gallen made two starts against the Dodgers in 2022, only allowing one run across 14 innings in the two games combined, striking out 18 in the process. 

Gallen holds a career ERA of 2.30 against the Dodgers, striking out 65 across 9 games–all of which he’s pitched at least 5 innings in. 

Before Diamondback fans start celebrating, I should let you all know–Julio Urias is even MORE dominant against the D-backs than Gallen is against the dodgers. Across 11 games against the Diamondbacks, Urias holds a record of 7-1 with just a 1.38 ERA. He’s only got 47 strikeouts against Arizona, but across the 11 games he’s only given up THREE home runs to Diamondback hitters–so be careful taking any home runs props on opening day.

If you are looking for a hitter prop in this game, I would look toward Mookie Betts. Betts has a career average of .385 against Gallen, and an OBP of .467. 

3. Unfortunately, The Astros Look Good Against the White Sox

Yes, we’re still upset about the Astros winning ANYTHING–but unfortunately, it’s beginning to look like they’ll be on the winning side of things on Thursday. Dylan Cease, the opening day starter for the White Sox, has faced off against the Astros only four times and has a 6.30 ERA across those outings. He’s only 1-3 against the ‘stros and has 20 strikeouts across the four games–which a surprisingly low number for the strikeout specialist. 

Valdez, on the other hand, has been great against the White Sox recently. Valdez is 3-1 with  3.41 ERA. He’s had modest strikeout numbers in his last two against Chicago, striking out 13 hitters in his last two, and has made it out of the sixth inning in each of his last four starts.

Michael Brantley only has 8 plate appearances against Cease, but he’s made each one of them count. He’s 3-7 with two home runs and 4 RBIs, so keep an eye on Brantley’s home run prop on Thurday.

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