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Ty's Six Pick: NBA and PGA Best Bets and Sleepers
The Eastern Conference finals tip off tonight and while oddsmakers have installed the mighty, mighty Boston Celtics as the favorites to beat the Heat and advance to the NBA Finals, I’m going my own way with Miami – twice, actually three ways.
First, as far as the Celtics-Heat series goes, I know that everyone is touting Jayson Tatum’s talents after his outstanding performance in Boston’s surprising blowout of the defending champion Bucks in Game 7 last Sunday.
It was impressive but, two things. First …
Miami -1.5 over Boston in Game 1.
Why? Three reasons: The Celtics figure to be a bit sluggish following its seven-game battle with the Bucks, the Heat are coming off five days of rest after knocking out the Sixers – that’s big come postseason time – and Marcus Smart, this year’s Defensive Player of the Year, is questionable (midfoot sprain) for Tuesday’s game and doesn’t figure to be 100 percent even if he does play.
This looks like a free gift. Are you ready to take it?
And two, I’m taking the Heat to win the series (Miami +150) and that the series will last all the way to a Game 7 (+210). I’m betting that home-court advantage and Jimmy Butler will be the difference.
I’m also taking the well-rested Golden State (-4.5) over the Mavericks in Game 1 in San Francisco. Sure, its game 7 rout of the battered and burned-out Suns was an unexpected laugher but the Warriors will be all business in the series opener and cover.
Moving on to the 2022 PGA Championship, which starts Thursday at the Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma, I’ll bet you $40 million that Philip Alfred Mickelson (his full name which may soon appear in court documents) doesn’t win it.
Lefty, he’s singin’ the blues, but listen up Panchos and Panchas and all the rest of ya:
There’s real actual money to be made on the golf’s second major tournament of the year. Picking an outright winner is always difficult (but sprinkle a little on these three underdogs: Sam Burns at +4000, Corey Connors at +6600 and Max Homa at +6600), but this next pick appears to be a fun and easy one whereby you can make better than even money on pushing a button, thus opening the door to quick cash and I’ll dare say it’s a lock.
On whether Joaquin Niemann will be the top finisher who hails from South America?
I say hell yes he does (at +165). You can find that and other top-player-from-various-country options here.
Niemann is a rising talent, is ranked 16th in the world, and has all the tools to win his first major, which some are predicting he’ll do this Sunday, even as he starts the first round at tempting +4000 odds. Instead, take the sure thing and rightfully assume he’s going to finish better than the second, third and fourth South American choices: Mito Pereira, Sebastian Munoz and Jhonattan Vegas.
Finally, when it's major tournament time, we know you want a little action on Tiger Woods.
We hear ya. OK, so let’s find the best value prop. And don’t even think, believe, and bet that he’ll win this PGA Tournament (he’s at +6600, by the way), even though he did just that at this country club 15 years ago. That’s a mighty long time ago, as Tiger can tell ya. And, like the man himself, the course has undergone a complete rebuild and overhaul, so forget fond memories and going back in time. With that said, here’s one Woods wager you’ll want to tee up: Tiger AND Sebastian Munoz to both make the cut (+170).
Don’t worry if you haven’t heard of Munoz. He’s a 29-year-old Colombian who just finished T-3 at the Byron Nelson tourney at TPC Craig Ranch. He’s good, and coupled with Tiger, this is a great value bet. Both will make it to Saturday’s third round. Bet on it and, as always, best of luck.