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UFC 283 Betting Odds: Full Event Preview, Best Bets, and Predictions
After the longest three weeks in recorded history, the UFC finally returned to action last Saturday, hosting a Fight Night headlined by Sean Strickland and Nassourdine Imavov. Luckily for us, there’s no three-week wait this time around–it’s back to regularly scheduled programming for the UFC, which means we are blessed with another card this Saturday, January 21st.
This Saturday’s card is the epitome of a banger–from top to bottom the card is filled with must-watch fights, and the crowd will be electric. For the first time since 2020–and the first time with an audience since 2019–the UFC will be taking its talents to Brazil this weekend, which is home to some of the best fighters to ever step foot in the UFC octagon.
This Saturday’s card features 17 Brazilian fighters, including at least one in each of the five main card fights–so it’s fair to assume that the arena will be rocking all night long. Here’s how the entire card will look, from start to finish, with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook:
Saimon Oliveira vs Daniel Marcos
#15 Josiane Nunes vs Zarah Fairn
Warlley Alves vs Nicolas Dalby
Ismael Bonfim vs Terrance McKinney
Luan Lacerda vs Cody Stamann
Gabriel Bonfim vs Mounir Lazzez
#15 Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Jailtom Almeida
Thiago Moises vs Melquizael Costa
Gregory Rodriguez vs Bruno Ferreira
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs Ihor Potieria
#9 Paul Craig vs #12 Johnny Walker
#4 Lauren Murphy vs #6 Jessica Andrade
#5 Gilbert Burns vs #12 Neil Magny
C Deiveson Figueiredo vs #1 Brandon Moreno (Championship Fight)
#2 Glover Teixeira vs #7 Jamahal Hill (Championship Fight)
No, your eyes are not deceiving you–and no, I did not make a typo (at least I didn’t in that list, this does not hold me exempt from any future typos). There are indeed TWO championship fights on this weekend's card, which in and of itself should make it a must-watch. Add on the fact that we have the likes of Gilbert Burns, Jessica Andrade, Johnny Walker, Shogun Rua, and Terrance McKinney also fighting on the card, and we have an early candidate for event of the year.
I get it, though. If you’re not a UFC fan, all this fan fair probably isn’t enough to get you to tune in. Well, what if I told you that you could bet on the fights too? I encourage all fans of sports betting to at least try to take some action on this Saturday’s card. There is no bigger rush than watching a fight that you have a little bet on, trust me.
If you’re not sure who to bet on, you’re in luck: what will follow is my ultimate betting guide to UFC 283. Not only will I give you my best bets, but I will also preview each of the fights I’m betting on so you’ll have a little background on what’s going on.
Best Bet #1: Saimon Oliveira (-155) over Daniel Marcos
Starting off the card, we have a fight between two products of Dana White’s Contender Series, as Saimon Oliveria squares off against Daniel Marcos. Outside of the Contender Series, Oliveira has only fought once in the UFC, losing his debut bout to Tony Gravley via unanimous decision at UFC 270. Marcos will be making his UFC debut on Saturday, putting his undefeated record of 13-0 on the line.
While Oliveira lost his first official UFC fight, it wasn’t as bad as it may seem on paper. He showed great striking (landing a flying knee that shook Gravley in the opening seconds of the fight) and even sunk in a guillotine choke that looked like a fight-ender just minutes later. Unfortunately for Oliveira, Gravely got out and began to take control of the fight, landing 11 takedowns and racking up minutes of control time.
Throughout the fight, Oliveira attempted at to sink in that Guillotine at least six or seven times, each one as impressive as the last. However, Gravely’s experience proved fruitful, and he was somehow able to sneak out of each one. We’re going to really learn a lot about Daniel Marcos’ grappling in this fight, and more specifically his submission defense. Marcos is an incredible knockout artist, finishing seven of his 13 fights via KO, but he hasn’t really been tested on the ground much yet–especially by a guy of Oliveira’s caliber.
Unfortunately for Marcos, I see that zero in his loss column going away this weekend after a Saimon Oliveria victory via submission.
Best Bet #2: Terrance McKinney (-125) over Ismael Bonfim
Moving on, my next best bet includes another Dana White Contender’s Series alumn making his UFC debut, as Ismael Bonfim squares off against Terrance McKinney. If you’ve been watching the UFC for the past couple of years, then theres no doubt that McKinney hasn’t come across your radar at least once. He started off his UFC career by knocking out Matt Frevola in seven seconds, and then followed that up with a first round submission win over Fares Ziam. He then lost a fight via TKO to Drew Dober in the first round, but followed that up with ANOTHER first round submission victory over Erick Gonzalez.
Are you sensing a trend? In fact, each of McKinney’s last 8 fights have ended in the first round. On Saturday against Bonfim, the Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds, and the under is the heavy favorite sitting at -230. While I think the under hits again here in this fight, I don’t think there’s enough value there for it to be seriously considered. I love McKinney to win this one via TKO–he’s just way too much for any fighter to handle, especially one making his UFC debut.
Best Bet #3: Paul Craig (+160) over Johnny Walker
What an absolute banger this fight is going to be. I don’t think Johnny Walker has ever been in a boring fight (except for those two against Kylov and Santos, we can ignore those) and Craig is the type of fighter than can win at any time, through any means possible.
While Craig’s last outing against Volkan Oezdemir left a lot to be desired, I think he rebounds tremendously here against Walker. Craig should rely heavily on his wrestling to get this one done, and I could very easily see this win coming via submission.
Craig must be careful standing and banging with Walker, but Walker did show some vulnerability in his last fight against Cutelaba, get stung early on.