UFC Betting Tips: When To Take The Over and When To Take The Under

UFC Betting Tips: When To Take The Over and When To Take The Under
Image ©Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
✍️ Written by
Frank Weber
🗓 Updated
May 19th 2023

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the UFC has become one of the most popular sports leagues in the world. When everyone else stopped, they ran–and their decision is starting to prove fruitful. Not only has the UFC become one of the most globally watched sports, but it’s also become one of the most bet-on sports–and if you’re like me, you’ve got bets floating around each Saturday night on a plethora of fights.

While you can never really game the system when it comes to sports betting, there are things you can do to increase your odds–and that's what this story is for. I’ll be giving out three must-know tips for betting on the UFC. My go-to sportsbook for UFC betting is DraftKings Sportsbook–they always have the best and most up-to-date odds, and they even offer fighter props for many of the big pay-per-views. However, if you want to shop around you can always do so, by checking out these New Jersey Online Casinos.

When To Take The Over and When To Take The Under

Torn as to if you should take the over/under in a fight? Then this is for you.

Of the 367 fights that have happened at a defined weight class so far this year (up until UF 279, not at catchweight)  182 have gone to decision. That’s almost a perfect 50% (49.5%) so I had to break it down even more–and here’s what I found.

Weight class To Decision (over) Not To Decision (under)
Women's 44 23
Flyweight 11 12
Bantamweight 21 18
Featherweight 25 16
Lightweight 18 31
Welterweight 22 25
Middleweight 24 20
Light Heavyweight 7 21
Heavyweight 10 19

So, statistically speaking, if you’re betting on a Women’s fight you’re going to want to take the over. This holds true for a majority of Featherweight flights and Bantamweight fights as well. However, you’ll want to hammer the under if it’s a Heavyweight, Light Heavyweight, or Lightweight fight.

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