UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Odds, Predictions & Picks

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez Odds, Predictions & Picks
Image © Handout Photo-USA TODAY Sports
✍️ Written by
Frank Weber
🗓 Updated
Aug 23rd 2023

UFC Vegas 42 Holloway vs. Rodriguez Odds, Predictions & Picks

Event Date and Time: November 13th | Prelims: 1:00 PM EST | Main Card: 4:00 PM EST

Where to Watch: ESPN+

A card carried mostly by its main event, the UFC Vegas 42 card is headlined by former Featherweight champion Max Holloway, who will be welcoming back the #3 ranked featherweight Yair Rodriguez after a two-year absence. The remaining undercard and prelims may not be the most exciting, but that doesn’t mean there’s no money to be made--so I’m going to give you all a few picks using lines from a few sports betting apps that should lead to an exciting Saturday.

Marc Diakiese (-188) vs Rafael Alves (+158) (Approx. 2:50 PM EST)

We’ll start off by looking at a fight on the undercard, which finds UFC veteran Marc Diakiese taking on newcomer Rafael Alves. Both fighters are coming off of a loss, so expect this one to have a bit more pace in it as both fighters will be trying to get back on the winning side of things. Rafael Alves has only had one prior fight in the UFC, losing via unanimous decision to Damir Ismagulov. Alves saw early success in that fight after dropping Ismagulov with a solid 1-2, but the tides quickly changed as the fight went on. Alves began to look lost on his feet, with Ismagulov pressing forward with a barrage of body strikes and quick jabs to the head.

Seeing how Alves reacted to the standup game in his last fight, he could be in for a rude awakening against a striker like Diakiese. Marc Diakiese also lands a majority of his strikes to the body, which is exactly what softened Alves up in his last fight. Marc Diakiese should walk away with this one fairly easily.

PICK: Marc Diakiese (-188), Marc Diakiese via Decision (+120)

Ben Rothwell (-158) vs Macros Rogerio de Lima (+134)

Fast-forwarding to the co-main event, my second pick comes in this highly touted heavyweight bout between two behemoths, Ben Rothwell and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. With over 500 pounds of man in the octagon, this fight has the potential to end at any moment which makes it incredibly hard to call. Both fighters are no stranger to the octagon, amassing a combined 28 fights in 19 years in the UFC. Rothwell has won three of his last four fights, all wins coming from a different method (TKO, Decision, and Submission). Rothwell is an incredibly skilled and balanced fighter who clearly has more than one way to finish a fight in the octagon.

Marcos Rogerio is 5-5 in his last ten, with all five losses coming via submission. Ben Rothwell has three submission finishes in the UFC and has both the strength and wrestling skills to keep even the best heavyweights down on the mat. I’ll be taking Rothwell moneyline in this fight, and even will be sprinkling a bit of submission victory as well.

PICK: Ben Rothwell to win via SUB (+420)

MAIN EVENT: Max Holloway (-820) vs Yair Rodriguez (+570) 

 The odds on this fight make it incredibly tough to bet on, unless you don’t mind tossing thousands of dollars towards it to just get a couple hundred in return. Former champ Max Holloway is clearly the favorite, but the thing that scares me about Yair is the same thing that makes him such a heavy underdog--he hasn’t fought in the UFC in two years. Before his break from the octagon, Yair Rodriguez was considered to be a killer, winning fights against Dan Hooker, Alex Caceres, BJ Penn, and Chan Sung Jung. I think this fight will be a lot closer than expected, so I’ll definitely be betting on the fight to go the distance.

With all that said, it is hard to bet against Max Holloway. He’s the self-proclaimed “best boxer in the UFC,” and who am I to take that title away from him? His only losses in the last 7 years have come to current featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski, and current #1 ranked Lightweight Dustin Poirier, so it’s hard to see Yair Rodriguez really giving him a serious problem. If you want to have fun with this fight and bet some of the Fanduel UFC Specials, I don’t think it’s a bad call. Here are the picks I like:


  • Fight to go the Distance YES (-124)
  • Max Holloway to win via Decision (+100)
  • Max Holloway to have 200+ Significant Strikes (+160)
  • Yair Rodriguez to have 1 or more takedowns (-130)
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