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UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs Tate Odds, Predictions & Picks
Event Date and Time: November 20th | Prelims: 3:00 PM EST | Main Card: 6:00 PM EST
Where to Watch: ESPN+
It’s that time of the week again--the UFC returns this Saturday night with another card stacked with young prospects and low-ranked hopefuls looking to make a statement. Last week's card was incredible--7 KO/TKO finishes in a row leading to our main event, which turned out to be a 5 round war. My picks last week weren’t the best (4-3) but as long as we stay above .500 I take it as a win. Here are my picks for this weekend's UFC card, using lines from a few different sports betting apps.
Loma Lookboonme (+144) vs Lupita ‘Loopy’ Godinez (-172)
In an all time name matchup, Loma Lookboonme looks to keep her two fight win streak rolling against fellow Strawweight Lupita ‘Loopy’ Godinez. In her third fight in just 42 days, Godinez will look to get back onto the winning side of things after dropping her last fight to Luana Carolina via decision.
Lookboonme is an incredibly balanced fighter who has a bit more of an edge on her feet than she does on the ground. She has upped her offensive output in every UFC fight she has been in so far, landing an average of 87 strikes per fight. She also has incredibly strong takedown defense, which will be a challenge for the wrestling based Godinez.
Lupita’s last fight came only a week after the previous one, which can give an inside look as to why she performed the way she did. Lupita had an incredibly tough time in her last bout against Carolina, both on the feet and securing the takedown. I don’t think Godinez has given herself enough time in between fights here, and it could really come back to haunt her yet again.
Picks: Lookboonme to win Moneyline (+144), Lookboonme via decision (+210)
Michael Chiesa (+144) vs Sean Brady (-172)
The young prospect Sean Brady puts his undefeated record on the line (14-0) in this matchup against the veteran and TUF alumnus Michael Chiesa. Brady has won his last two fights via submission, but has yet to face a presence on the ground that's quite like Michael Chiesa. One of the best wrestlers in the division, Chiesa will definitely feel more than comfortable on the ground in this fight, especially because Brady has a bit of an edge in striking.
While I expect this to be a good fight, I can also see a lot of its time being spent on the mat. And what tends to happen in wrestling heavy fights? Decisions.
Pick: Fight to go the distance YES (+114)
(I would keep a close eye on this fight though, if one fighter starts to take an edge you may want to consider taking some live action as well.)
Ketlen Vieira (-116) vs Miesha Tate (-102)
As close to a pick 'em as you can get, Vieira and Tate square off in this weekend’s main event. Former champion Miesha Tate returned after a 5 year absence in July, and came back with a bang after knocking out Marion Reneau. On the other hand, Ketlen Vieira has only fought three times in the last three years and is 1-2 in those fights, most recently being losing a decision to Yana Kunitskaya in February.
Both of these ladies have incredible ground games--Vieira's being BJJ based and Tate's being wrestling based. Vieira should offer a challenge to Tate especially from her back, but Tate is such an incredible wrestler that she shouldn't have a problem maintaining her position and avoiding the submissions.
All in all, I think Tate is a nightmare matchup for Vieira, and should win this one in dominant fashion.
Picks: Tate to win (-102), Tate to win via decision (+195)