Presidential Election Predictions - 2024 Hopefuls & Unlikely Candidates
Even though these two men broke records for being the two oldest presidential nominees of all time (see this WaPo story), one man signaled he would only be a one-term president (see this Politico story), and the other man might ONLY be a one-term president amid his escalating legal issues, a lot of eyes are still on Trump and Biden’s presidential 2024 hopes as election predictions & rumors fire around the world.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been gradually waning as his administration is falling behind on accomplishing the most popular core tenets of its agenda, campaign promises like federal marijuana rescheduling and student debt relief. Former President Donald Trump, although still having a fervent supporter base, could be barred from running again in the face of his progressively mounting controversies.
If the majority of the Senate and Congress wanted to bar Trump from ever running for public office ever again over controversies like being named in the Ghislaine Maxwell trial (per NBC), or the ongoing investigation into his role in stoking the Capitol riot on January 6th, they technically could under Article 2, Section 4 of the Constitution.
This statute denotes that “The President, Vice President and all civil officers of the United States, shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Nevertheless, barring any legal troubles, Trump’s odds are still pretty strong on PredictIT; on the political betting market, his presidential contract shares are valued 7 cents higher than Biden’s, 30 cents vs 23 cents, respectively.
But what do other presidential hopefuls’ odds look like on the platform? With an increasingly unpopular and probable one-term president, and a guy who might be forced to just remain a one-term president, it’s probable that both Democrats and Republicans could be looking at other candidates to fulfill their 2024 hopes. Here are some of PredictIT’s top picks on those other candidates.
Will AOC Run For President In 2024?
Bernie Sanders mobilized a fervent, passionate base of supporters in both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic parties, and at the height of his Senate favorability, held an 83 percent approval rating. Despite his immense popularity though, Sanders was unable to pull it off either time, with the neck-and-neck 2020 primary race narrowly swinging to Biden after Super Tuesday.
Because Sanders is currently 80 years old and unlikely to run for a third time around in 2024, many of his supporters are now looking toward younger candidates who could mount similar presidential campaigns to push a similarly progressive agenda into the White House. One of the most popular hopefuls in that regard has to be Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who swiftly emerged as a rising star beating longtime New York Congressional Rep. Joe Crowley in 2018.
AOC quickly rose from a modest working-class living bartending to representing NY’s 14th district on the national stage. She is undisputedly one of the most popular faces among the Democratic Party’s growing, burgeoning progressive wing; in one October 2021 Statista poll, 42% of respondents had a mostly favorable opinion of the Congresswoman, 34% had a mostly unfavorable view of her, and 24% weren’t sure how they felt about AOC.
AOC will be 35 come 2024, and legally able to run for president that year if she wants to. That said, the PredictIT trading community doesn’t see a 2024 presidential campaign from the congresswoman as being particularly likely to happen, with only 19 cents priced on her announcing a 2024 run. This could indicate that:
- AOC could desire a few more years of political experience before pursuing a presidential run, if she ever does (given that she would be one of the younger candidates in the running).
- The congresswoman still has more work to do to win over undecided voters and overcome the opposition presented by Republicans, establishment Democrats, and voters with immensely unfavorable opinions of her.
One possible opposition candidate who could represent the antithesis of what AOC would represent, is the staunchly conservative Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
Will DeSantis Win In 2024?
Besides former President Trump, another increasingly popular figure among the GOP’s hardest right-wing is Ron DeSantis. A recent fall 2021 Morning Consult poll found that 4 out of 5 Republican voters in Florida approved of Governor DeSantis, even as his net approval dropped 14% amid his controversial, divisive handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of course, Florida Democrats and independents make up the biggest state voting blocs against DeSantis, but his approval rating amongst Florida Republicans has even dipped 4% over the past several months. But with rumors swirling abound of a 2024 DeSantis presidential run, or DeSantis potentially becoming Trump’s running mate after his falling out (to say the least) with former VP Mike Pence, what are the odds of the Florida governor pulling off a national bid?
In spite of his extremely passionate supporter base, not the best. PredictIT has DeSantis odds of becoming the GOP’s 2024 nominee priced at a whopping 16 cents lower than Trump’s. This indicates that while the GOP’s most die-hard base still has a strong loyalty for DeSantis, they ultimately still have a stronger loyalty to the former president.
Ergo, DeSantis himself has shot down the idea of a 2024 presidential run, calling those rumors “nonsense” in a recent press conference covered by Politico. These are betting futures though, and the landscape could certainly change with time.
Kamala Harris + Mike Pence 2024 Odds?
With big challenges potentially facing both Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s future presidential ambitions, what would the odds of their running mates look like if they hypothetically squared off in a 2024 presidential matchup?
Like DeSantis and Trump, Kamala Harris trails 16 cents behind Biden’s shares on becoming the DNC’s 2024 nominee, with both her and Biden respectively valued at 24 and 40 cents.
Moreover, Mike Pence’s popularity is trailing far behind Trump’s and DeSantis’ among the GOP, with his PredictIT shares only valued at a penny below a dime (9 cents), indicating that Harris or another challenger would most likely beat him in a campaign matchup. So both Democrats and Republicans may have to look toward other candidates in 2024, and it could wind up being a really wide playing field.
Other Presidential Candidates?
Although there aren’t currently any PredictIT markets open on these people, here are some rumored 2024 candidates who may have betting futures open up with time:
- Jay Inslee
- Cory Booker
- Pete Buttigieg
- Stacey Abrams
- Greg Abbott
- Ted Cruz
- Marco Rubio
- Tom Cotton
- Chris Christie
- Tucker Carlson
- Donald Trump Jr
- Ivanka Trump
There’s not much definite word on any Kanye or Rock runs quite yet, but we’ll continue to follow the murky 2024 presidential landscape as it continually evolves and the fog gradually clears. In the meantime, you can sign up for PredictIT to start trading on current futures (with a $55 first deposit match bonus) and sign up for our mailing list to get more prediction market updates, completely free of charge!