Week 11 NFL Picks & Sleepers

Week 11 NFL Picks & Sleepers
Image © Rob Schumacher / USA TODAY NETWORK
✍️ Written by
Kuthula Magubane
🗓 Updated
Aug 23rd 2023

Week 11 NFL Picks

Through the season’s first half, the N.F.C. was top-heavy with contenders, with as many as up to five teams jostled for home-field advantage in the playoffs. But with injuries mounting and weaknesses now revealed, divisional races could get complicated. For week 11 the major sports betting apps are on fire with exciting odds boosts.

The Panthers, who added quarterback Cam Newton and returned running back Christian McCaffery from injury, could pounce on the N.F.C. South while the Buccaneers and Saints play games without key starters. The 49ers, after a statement win Monday night, have a soft stretch in their schedule. With a win likely over the Jaguars this week, San Francisco could make up some ground on securing a wild-card spot out of the N.F.C. West while the Rams are on a bye.

As the intrigue in the N.F.C. heightens, the A.F.C.’s tightest races could get new leaders. The Patriots have a shot at closing the half-game gap with the Bills in the East, and the Steelers (5-3-1) have inched to within a fraction of the Ravens (6-3) in the North — a space it will try to close in a matchup against the Chargers.

Below is a look at N.F.L. Week 11, with all picks made against the spread.

New England Patriots (-7) at Atlanta Falcons

Latest Odds: Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Patriots will continue to roll as Mac Jones plays well, leading them to four straight victories, which has them pushing Buffalo in the AFC East. Although these games are always tough for the visitors, the Falcons looked terrible last week against the Cowboys and I don't think that this will be any different.

Pick: Patriots 27, Falcons 19

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Latest Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

The Saints have a tough few upcoming games which will all be on the road. The Eagles led by Jalen Hurts are improving by the week. They impressed last week by winning at Denver but this Saints defense is strong and it will slow the Eagles' offense. Saints get by with just enough offense.

Pick: Saints 21, Eagles 17

Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)

Latest Odds: New York Jets +3

The Dolphins beat Baltimore with an impressive defensive showing last week and have now won two straight games to get to 3-7. That defense will make things tough for whoever plays quarterback for the Jets. Although the Dolphins are banged up at quarterback,  Tua Tagovailoa will be back and we believe they will win behind their defense.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 10

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Latest Odds: Carolina Panthers -3.5

Cam Newton is back for his first start and it will come against his former coach, Ron Rivera. Washington is without its two starting defensive ends, which will make things challenging for them. The Carolina defense is getting stronger weekly, and it will force Taylor Heinicke into some turnovers. Carolina takes it.

Pick: Panthers 24, Washington 16

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Paramount+)

Latest Odds: Buffalo Bills -7

While the Colts edged the Jaguars, the Bills got back on track last week with a victory over the Jets. Buffalo's defense continues to play top-tier football, as it allows just 3.8 yards per rush on the ground, which will pose a problem for Jonathan Taylor and the Colts offense. That will force Carson Wentz to step up, and if he won't, the Bills take it.

Pick: Bills 30, Colts 20

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-10)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Latest Odds: Cleveland Browns -11.5

Although he is expected to play, Baker Mayfield isn’t at 100%. He wasn't good last week against the Patriots, but the Browns defense was just as bad. The Lions got a tie at Pittsburgh last week, but this is not a good spot against a team that is desperate. The Lions are also playing consecutive road games.

Pick: Browns 32, Lions 19

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Latest Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The 49ers had an exceptional game against the Rams on Monday night. But traveling across the country in a short week after a big win won't be easy. Don't count out the Jaguars too soon. Their defense is playing well, and that unit will keep them in this game and maybe pull off an upset.

Pick: 49ers 23, Jaguars 21

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Latest Odds: Minnesota Vikings +1.5

The Packers are playing great defense right now, which will present a real challenge for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Minnesota was impressive last week winning on the road against the Chargers. But this Packers team will get the offense back on track again to go with a defense that will slow Cousins in what is a big game. Packers take it.

Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 19

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