What Is Gambler’s Fallacy? Why You Should Bet With Your Head, Not Over It

Last Updated: Jan 7th 2022   Published: Jan 6th 2022   3 Min Read
What Is Gambler’s Fallacy? Why You Should Bet With Your Head, Not Over It

Gambler’s fallacy refers to the mistaken belief that if a certain outcome occurs more frequently than other outcomes in the past, it is much less likely to occur in the future. This phenomenon is also sometimes known as the Monte Carlo fallacy due to a famous 1913 game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco, when the ball landed on black 26 times.

Despite that long and statistically rare hot streak (with a 1 in 66.6 million probability of occurring), bettors lost millions of Frances betting on the red and against the black against their better judgment, mistakenly assuming that the streak would break.

While that’s the most famous historical example of the gambler’s fallacy in action, the biggest roulette ball spin streak, in actuality, occurred three decades later in 1943 during a US casino game when the roulette ball landed on the red 32 consecutive times (see this Caesar’s guide for more info on that).

Bottom line, just because something happened a lot in the past, it doesn’t mean that thing is guaranteed to happen in the future. Find out what motivates people to fall into this fallacy, and how you can make the most of risk-free online casino no deposit bonus promotions.

Gambler’s Fallacy In Psychology 

In psychology, the gambler’s fallacy is suspected to arise from a mistaken belief in small numbers - that is, that small samples must be representative of a larger sum total, when in reality, these outcomes are completely independent and have no relation with one another.

Think about flipping a coin. That is perhaps one of the most binary, even money wagers you can ever place. Despite this, it’d probably be really hard to have the coin land on heads or tails over 26 or 32 consecutive instances. These odds vary even more flippantly across various table games, live dealer games, and chance games at online casinos for real money. 

Sometimes gambler’s fallacy can disincentivize a player from placing a winning future bet, but when it happens to a player riding high off a winning streak, it’s known as “hot hand fallacy” – the mistaken fallacy that past wins guarantee future wins, when that’s not true. Of course there are exceptions, such as if you’re trying to parlay a wager, but most outcomes across sportsbooks and various online casino games are independent of one another. 

Gambler’s Fallacy For Lottery?

You might think of this notion in relation to playing games at the best Michigan online casinos or best NJ online casinos, but one of the biggest games where it applies is a lottery. 

If the gambler’s fallacy was true, then you could almost certainly guarantee a win buying tickets en masse, correct? Wrong. While entering a pool and buying multiple tickets can marginally improve the number of drawings you have in a raffle, the lottery odds are always going to remain an extremely longshot raffle, regardless of whether you brought one ticket or 100.

That’s you’d be wise to draw RISK-FREE with THIS $2 promo from our friends at Jackpocket, and if you’re a Great Lake State resident, consider checking out the great FREE drawings offered by the Michigan Lottery. Not to have some hot hands of our own, but what do you really have to lose?

How To Avoid Gambler’s Fallacy

Free online lottery drawings won’t cost you, but gambler’s fallacy can in the long run. To mitigate your chances of falling into this trap, consider the following tips:

  • Never, never, never EVER wager more than you’d be comfortable losing
  • Only limit your wagers to unit bets or flat bets
  • Avoid a negative progression play style where you raise stakes with each loss
  • Consider exclusively playing with betting systems meant to strategically conserve bankroll
  • Start playing with a risk-free online casino free signup bonus, no deposit required!

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