What No U.S. Student Loan Forgiveness Could Mean For The Biden Administration According To PredictIT
The Biden Administration drew considerable ire last Friday after White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki stated that “a smooth transition back into repayment is the highest priority”, indicating that the President is most likely walking back his campaign promise to forgive student loan debt en masse. (You can read the full press briefing transcript where Psaki said this on the White House website.)
This past June, Chuck Schumer tweeted that President Biden could theoretically end student debt “with the stroke of a pen”, an assertion which PolitiFact claims could theoretically be possible, provided it could manage to overcome legal challenges that would currently be imposed by how our system is structured.
So while President Biden may not be the only person at fault for student debt not yet being forgiven, and future forgiveness may not be completely off the table, any president’s reneged campaign promise is bound to reflect poorly on public perception of their administration. So we decided to examine how this news could potentially affect prediction markets and political betting markets related to the administration, specifically on PrecictIt, and unfortunately, the signs don’t seem to bode well for his administration.
PredictIt Futures On The Biden Administration
The student loan debt news, predictably, has not upped Biden’s approval rating projections on PredictIt. In fact, the prices on the contract shares predicting that it won’t rise above 42.9% tomorrow have risen by six cents.
Moreover, the predictions that his 538 approval rating will remain “underwater” (meaning below 50%) come the eve of New Year’s Eve (12/30) are even more definitively pessimistic. The contract shares predicting that his administration will pull it’s approval rating above water before the year’s end are only valued at a meager, measly, and very lonely penny.
The futures also look bleak on another Biden campaign promise - federally rescheduling marijuana to be a fully legalized drug nationwide. Unlike student loan forgiveness, experts argue that marijuana rescheduling is a measure the president could implement with minimal legal challenges - including experts working under his own administration’s Congressional Research Service!
But while voters have recently passed many positive drug legalization and decriminalization reforms on the local state level, the PredictIt markets aren’t feeling too optimistic about national-level marijuana reforms happening anytime soon. On marijuana being federally rescheduled before 4/20 next year, the PredictIt markets only have the shares related to that happening priced at a meager 7 cents.
Things aren’t looking too good for Biden’s second-in-command either; there are 72 cents priced on Kamala Harris NOT becoming the 47th president of the United States, indicating that the Democrats may not want to count on either incumbent to bolster their 2024 election odds.
Last, but most certainly not least among the mounting issues for the Biden Administration’s public reputation is the Supreme Court. Pro-choice rights are currently under threat and likely to be undermined by the conservative supermajority court. Advocates for a less hyperpartisan and more representative Court have urged Biden to expand the number of SCOTUS seats to offset the supermajority.
Unfortunately, the PredictIt trends aren’t too keen on Biden reforming the courts in the near future. On two markets related to the Court, the shares on that prediction (like the shares on his approval rating) are just priced at a single meager, minuscule, lonely penny.
We’ll continue to follow positive and negative political betting market developments as they arise, and we hope you’ll give our mailing list a follow if you want more real-time prediction market updates delivered directly to your inbox. Furthermore, if you're interested in wagering on any one of these predictions, consider signing up for PredictIt through our affiliate link to get a $55 first-deposit match bonus.