Who Will Be The Next US President?

Image © Scott Taetsch / USA TODAY Sports

Author:

Alicia Butler

Updated:

May 19th 2023

Published:

November 19th 2021 - 04:41 PM

Normally, we’re all waiting with bated breath, just dying to know who will bet the next president of the U.S.

But in previous years, we all had a good idea of who could be president. Pollsters seemed more reliable, and misinformation didn’t spread as rampantly as it does today.

But in 2024, things might look a little different than they have in previous years.

First of all, there are rumors that President Biden may not run for president again and will instead nominate his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his place. Secondly, the last president, Donald Trump, may actually try to run again for office next year.

Currently, Harris is the favorite to win the 2024 election — over both Biden and former president, Donald Trump.

Find out who may be in the running for president in 2024, who’s the current favorite to win the election, and how to place futures bets on the 2024 presidential election.

Presidential Election Odds 2024

2024 may look a little different than previous election years. In fact, it seems like the stakes during election years have increased exponentially with each cycle.

Yet in 2024, we may have a few wrenches thrown into the machine! Not only may the current sitting president not run for reelection — but the last president may try to run again.

Since Biden will be 81 years old in 2024, he may not choose to run again. Though, Biden did say back in March 2021 that he was still planning to run for reelection in 2024. If he doesn’t run, many analysts believe that he will nominate his vice president, Kamala Harris, to run in his place.

Republican President Candidates

On the Republican side of things, no one candidate has totally cornered the market, yet! Though Donald Trump is the favorite at PredictIT to win the GOP primary. Shares for the answer to the question, “GOP 2024 presidential nominee?” for an answer of Trump are selling at $0.41 a share; shares for the answer of Ron DeSantis (governor of Florida) are only selling at $0.25 a share.

Shares are currently selling on PredictIT for $0.29 on PredictIT for Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election.

Biden Running for President in 2024?

Right now, Biden is the favorite Democratic nominee at PredictIT. Shares of the answer to the question, “Democratic 2024 presidential nominee,” are selling at $0.37 for Biden and only $0.26 for Kamala Harris.

Though, Biden is not the favorite at PredictIT to win the presidential election, as the price of a share of the question, “2024 presidential election winner,” is only $0.23 for Biden.

Possible 2024 US President Nominees

While a lot can happen between now and November 2024, current events can greatly affect an election or foreshadow events several years from now.

Biden or Harris? The Case for Biden

It’s rare for a sitting president to be voted out of office for a second term.

While Donald Trump was voted out of office for his second term, analysts believe it was only due to the COVID-19 pandemic that this happened. The last president not to be reelected for a second term was George HW Bush, back in 1992. That’s over 30 years ago!

Democrats may simply convince Biden to run for another term because they believe he has the best chance of winning — especially if Donald Trump is the GOP pick to run against him.

Kamala Harris for President 2024?

Analysts also believe that Biden simply won’t run again. This is mostly due to his age (he will be 81 in 2024).

If he decides not to run again, the favorite to run in his place is Vice President Kamala Harris.

Harris would be the first African American woman (and first Asian woman) to be nominated by a major political party to run for president. And when it comes to identity politics, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room: did the citizens who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 refuse to vote for Clinton because of her gender? And are they going to vote for a woman in 2024?

One reason Harris may be the favorite to win the presidential election in 2024 is that there has been historic black voter turnout in the past few years. Black women voters in particular flipped Georgia in 2020 and the 2021 special election.

Can this be replicated across the country?

Can Donald Trump Run Again in 2024?

Yes, right now Donald Trump can run again for president — but whether or not he will (or can in the future) is another story.

The only U.S. president to serve two non-consecutive terms was Grover Cleveland.

Those odds aren’t necessarily in his favor, though we may not have enough to truly understand why two non-consecutive term presidents are so rare.

Another factor to take into consideration is that Trump will be 78 years old in 2024. While he’ll still be three years younger than Biden in 2024, he may not want to run again (and voters may worry what would happen if he should pass while in office).

It’s also worth noting that more people voted for Biden in 2020 than any other incumbent opponent in U.S. history.

While the GOP may not want Trump to run, it may not be up to the Republican Party. The GOP wasn’t keen on Trump running in 2016 — but that didn’t stop the former president from doing so!

Another current event to consider is the recent voter restriction laws enacted in Republican states. While the Democratic party has blocked many of these laws in states, such as Texas, laws have been passed in at least 18 other states, restricting voting — many targeting black and Latina communities.

And yet another event (or rather series of events) to consider is Trump’s and his associates’ fraud investigation. If Trump’s attention is spent on his possible impending legal issues, he may not have the bandwidth for a campaign in 2024. And if his case goes to trial? It may not be possible for him to run.

Other possible favorites could include Mike Pense and Nikki Haley.

Will AOC Run for President in 2024?

Another contender for the 2024 election is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York congresswoman.

Rumors of Ocasio-Cortezrunning for president in 2024 have been flying. So much so that she even has her own contract on PredictIT. Yet, shares for ‘yes’ answers to the question, “AOC files for president before 2024?” only cost $0.13 a share, while no answers cost $0.87 a share.

Bettors don’t seem to think that Ocasio-Cortez will try to win the bid for president in 2024, and there’s not much buzz in newsfeeds that suggests she will, either.

The only indicator that she might run for president is simply that 2024 would be the first year she would be eligible to do so — as she’ll turn 35 just after the election.

Celebrity Presidential Candidates: Dwayne Johnson, Tucker Carlson & Others

Trump proved it was possible for someone with virtually no political experience to win the presidency. Now, other celebrity candidates are following suit.

Other celebrities with no political experience have shown interest in running for pres, and we can’t yet discount celebrities such as Dwayne (the Rock) Johnson, Tucker Carlson, Dave Portnoy (though Portnoy is dealing with sexual misconduct allegations of his own right now), and Tucker Carlson.

Another possible celebrity candidate could be Ivanka Trump. While Trump was a mainstay in the Whitehouse during her father’s single term serving as president, does she really have any formal background (other than the training provided by her father, another politician without a political background)? And does this count as political experience?

Either way, Ivanka Trump’s name has also been thrown around on the boards, though currently her name is only connected to one PredictIT share, “Ivanka Trump in ‘22 FL GOP sen. primary?”

A yes answer currently costs $0.04 and a no answer is $0.96.

What Is Election Prediction Betting?

Election prediction betting is simply futures bets. These are bets where the outcome won’t be determined until many months or years later.

Bets may be made early on or closer to the date of the outcome. If we’re betting on the 2024 presidential election, so much can happen before the day of the actual election (at the time of writing this, the election is about three years away).

But just like with the stock market, the idea is to buy low and sell high. If you want to make some serious dough, you’ll want to figure out who is most likely to win the election — but at a moment when everyone else believes your pick will lose.

Futures bets — especially when it comes to the outcome of yes or no bets — are called moneylines. This means you’re just betting on the winner and not a series of factors.

Is Betting on Elections Legal?

Yes, in some circumstances, it is legal! While you can’t head over to any U.S. sportsbook and bet on an election, you can bet on elections at certain election betting market platforms, such as PredictIT and Kalshi.

On these platforms, you’ll find political betting markets. Bet on elections, bills, presidential administrations, who will run in elections, and more.

Simply purchase shares or contracts of the outcomes of yes or no statements. Similar to how the stock market works, the price of shares rises when more people believe one candidate will win (or one outcome will prevail) over another.

Buy low, and sell when share prices are high.

Best Election Market Prediction Sites

Three sites currently allow you to purchase shares or contracts of yes or no statement outcomes. If you want to place your bets on who will be the next U.S. president, you can do so at PredictIT or Kalshi.

PredictIT

PredictIT is the first market prediction site of its scope to focus solely on politics. Purchase shares of the outcomes of questions to win real money.

PredictIT has been called, “probably one of the most exciting engines I've come across in terms of political opinion," by pundit James Carville.

Right now, PredictIT is offering OddsSeeker readers a first deposit match of up to

$55 — totally free! Just follow the link and use the code OddsSeeker to get your bonus.

Prediction markets include the following:

Presidential prediction
Biden administration
U.S. Elections
Senate elections
Congressional elections
State elections
Local elections
World markets
And more!

Examples of yes and no statements or questions might include:

“House yeas for reconciliation by 11/19?”
“Who will be the speaker in the next congress?”
“German chancellor on 12/31?”

Kalshi

One of Kalshi’s biggest prediction markets is election predictions. At Kalshi, you can buy contracts of the outcomes of yes or no questions in pretty much any category under the sun — though, some of the most popular markets are political markets.

Prediction markets include the following:

Climate & weather prediction betting
COVID-19
Economics
Economy
Entertainment
Housing
Inflation
Politics
Science & technology
Transportation
World

Examples of yes or no questions might include:

“What will the high be in New York City on Friday?”
“What will October’s inflation be?”
“Will universal pre-K be made available before November 8, 2021?”

It’s the first site of its kind to be regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Iowa Electronic Markets

Another site that allows you to bet on election predictions is the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the University of Iowa. This site doesn’t offer as many prediction markets as the other sites on this list, but it was one of the first of its kind — so it’s worth a mention!

Prediction markets include the following:

2022 French Presidential Election Markets
2022 U.S. Congressional Control Markets
Economic Indicator Markets (no economic indicator markets are open at this time)
Classroom Markets (Academic traders only)