World Series Game 3 Odds

World Series Game 3 Odds
✍️ Written by
Sarah Ryan
🗓 Updated
Aug 23rd 2023

Tonight at 8, the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros are slated to kick off Game 3 of the 2022 World Series. This marks the series’ shift from Space City’s Minute Maid Park to The City of Brotherly Love’s Citizens Bank Park, but only time and fate will tell which way this series’ tiebreaker will shift. The Phillies made quite the impressive comeback in Game 1, blowing the Astros’ 5-0 lead with six consecutive runs of their own.

In particular, it was J.T. Realmuto’s game-winning homer that broke the tie and brought the Phightin’ Phils over the hump to win Game 1. However, the team couldn’t quite pull off the same feat in Game 2, with Kyle Schwarber missing two potential comeback homers by literal inches - both at the same at-bat! (MLB)

Since Schwarber very narrowly sent the ball over the foul line, Houston was able to hold the line for a 5-2 victory over the Phillies, leaving the postseason series tied 1-1 overall. Will the Astros be able to maintain that momentum through Game 3, or will Houston have a problem? Will the Phillies break the tie and carry that momentum toward their first World Series win since 2008? Will Ted Cruz and his tonsil stones show up to get booed at Citizens’ Bank Park, just like they both showed up to get booed at Yankee Stadium? (ABC 13 Houston)

Only time and fate will be able to definitively answer those questions tonight, but we can tell you what the oddsmakers at Vegas and DraftKings Sportsbook think are the most likely answers. With that said, let’s run down both sides of the money line, the over-under, and the likelihood of whether or not tonight’s third game will be rained out yet again!

World Series Game 3 Prediction

The Astros and Phillies will be stepping up to the mound with a potentially challenging starting pitcher mismatch for Philadelphia. In lieu of deploying their more consistent mound marksman, Noah Snydergaard, the Phillies will be starting Game 3 with Ranger Suarez, who allowed 3 runs and has struggled with an elevated 12% walk rate across the overall 2022 playoffs.

Combine that historical trend with the overall historical trends of the Astros performing better against lefties and in Games 3 and 4, and you’ve got a potentially pessimistic pitching outlook for the Phillies tonight. Right now, Houston is priced as -125 moneyline favorites on DraftKings, meaning that laying a $200 unit on them would earn you a solid, well rounded $360 payout if they win.

If you’re feeling confident enough in Lance McCullers’ pitching and Houston’s bullpen to maintain a steady lead, you could go for their -1.5 run line for extra juice, currently at +135 plus money odds on DraftKings. But Philadelphians love their good underdog stories, and if you think the dog will have their day tonight, you can currently get the Phillies moneyline for +105 odds on DraftKings.

Placing a $100 unit on those odds would pay out fairly even money at $205 if the Phightin’ Phils pull it off. Although Philadelphia is less favored to win tonight (with Dimers computer algorithm pegging their win probability at 47%), the team is more favored to cover their +1.5 side of the run line (a 60% probability outcome on Dimers).

This runline is priced at a fair -155 odds on DraftKings, and if you’re looking for a safer bet, you could opt to take this pick as an insurance policy. So long as the Phillies don’t lose by more than one run, this bet will win, even if the Phillies narrowly lose. But if you’re looking for a win that isn’t contingent on which team gets the win, consider the over/under.

World Series Game 3 Over Under

Right now on DraftKings, the default over/under is set at 8 runs, with +100 odds on the over, and -120 odds on the under. It’s worth noting that both teams narrowly missed this number in Game 1 at 7 runs, and narrowly exceeded this number in Game 2 with 11 runs.

Given the heavy-hitting firepower in both bullpens, we would probably lean over, and at 57% probability, Dimers’ simulation of the game is also leaning over. If you’re looking for a safer over at modestly-priced odds, you could play the alternate Over 6.5 total for -195 on DraftKings. This over was surpassed in both Game 1 and Game 2, and we wouldn’t be surprised if both teams surpass 6.5 combined total runs again tonight.

Will The World Series Be Rained Out Tonight? (Again?)

Right now, Accuweather forecasts a 40% chance of rain in the Philadelphia area, but only an 8% chance of thunderstorms, so it’s not likely that things will get bad enough to lead to another rain delay. If you’re looking to place any potential bets on the weather, you could give Kalshi a look.

Otherwise, if you’d like to bet on the game, you could take advantage of DraftKings’ MLB World Series Stepped Up Same Game Parlay promo. With such heavy hitters on both teams, tonight would also be an opportune time to take advantage of their 25% World Series hits profit boost. If you’re a new DraftKings user, you can get started with your first deposit matched up to $1,000 in site credit.

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