Sports Betting Predictions

Casinos Don’t Expect You To Do This, But They Can’t Stop You

Here we’ll break down every single deposit bonus and no deposit bonus at legal online casinos in Michigan, NJ, and PA. We’ll show you their theoretical value so you can see which ones to claim first.
Sarah Ryan
Author:
Sarah Ryan
Updated:
28 September 2022
Table of content

    Casino Bonus Strategy

    Yes, you’re right - some online casino bonus codes are worthless. Do you know how to tell which are trash and which actually have a theoretical profit (if used correctly?)

    Here we’ll break down every single deposit bonus and no deposit bonus at legal online casinos in Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. We’ll show you their theoretical cash value AND theoretical profit, so you can see which ones to claim first (because the risk is lower).


    DISCLAIMER - of course - we’re talking about gambling, so don’t ever stake what you can’t afford to lose. You can never guarantee a profit or positive result. You might lose everything, HOWEVER - if you’re a math nerd like we are, or even if you’re not, you’ll quickly see which bonuses actually tip the odds in your favor.


    FIRST, you must understand these 4 things


    • Match Bonus - This refers to the % of your first deposit that will be matched with bonus play. This is also called a deposit bonus.

    • Maximum Bonus - This refers to the maximum amount of bonus play you can get

    • Wagering Requirement - This refers to the dollar amount of bets you must place to convert bonus play into withdrawable cash. This is calculated as a multiplier based on either the bonus amount or the bonus amount + the initial deposit amount.

    • Return-to-Player (RTP) - This refers to the average amount a player will win in any game. All casino games, and specifically slots, have a fixed amount set that a player should theoretically win over an infinite number of spins/hands/bets. These are expressed as a %. Blackjack has a 99% RTP, if it’s played perfectly. Most slots have an RTP between 94% and 97%. There’s a HUGE difference in the expected win on games that have a 95% RTP vs. a 97% RTP, which you’ll see in our analysis below. If you stake $100, you should theoretically win back $95-$97 on most slots - this is an average, so the more bets you make, the more likely you are to have a result close to the average.


    Without further adieu, here’s how it works.


    You'll sign up to an online casino, and collect first deposit match bonus. All of your bonus balance will be 'locked' meaning that you can't cash it out. In order to cash it out, you need to place a set amount of wagers with that balance. Once that amount of wagers have been played, you can then cash out any remaining balance.


    We'll show you how much you can expect to cash out.


    Now we’ll use the BetMGM deposit bonus as an example:


    100% match up to $1,000


    COST: $1,000 Deposit

    BONUS: $1,000


    WAGERING REQUIREMENT: 15x Bonus Amount

    PLAYTHROUGH: $15,000 (Amount that must be wagered before cash can be withdrawn)

    MINIMUM GAME RTP: 97% (If you play all $15,000 of the wagers on a game with a 97% RTP)

    GROSS WIN: $14,550

    GROSS LOSS: $450


    From a starting balance of $2,000, you'll subtract the $450 gross loss leaving you with a balance of $1,550. Since $1,000 of that is the original deposit that you made, we subtract it out and are left with the Theoretical Cash Value of this promotion, which is +$550.


    If you can do the following three things, you can claim all of the first deposit bonuses at online casinos in your state and will have a positive TCV of:

    New Jersey: 

    Michigan: 

    Pennsylvania: 


    BUT WAIT - in order for this to work, you need to;


    1. BE PATIENT
    2. CHOSE THE CORRECT GAMES
    3. DOUBLE CHECK THE PROMOTION TERMS


    Are you ready to cash out online casino bonus offers?!


    Get started by claiming the highest TCV bonuses here:


    Michigan Online Casino Bonus Codes

    New Jersey Online Casino Bonus Codes

    Pennsylvania Online Casino Bonus Codes


    We’re going to focus on 4 main metrics to assess the Theoretical Cash Value (TCV) of every online casino bonus.


    Cost


    When we refer to cost on OddsSeeker, it refers to whatever is required of you to qualify for the bonus. This could be your deposit amount or bet amount. 


    Return-to-Player (RTP)


    Again, this is the theoretical amount a player would expect to win from a given game over an infinite number of spins/bets/hands. For example, if you bet $1,000 on 1,000 slot spins and you won $970 in the end, then the RTP would be 97%. We’ll calculate the Theoretical Cash Value based on playing a specific set of games; only the Highest RTP Slots at the online casino whose bonus you're trying to cash out. If you play games with an RTP lower than what we state in the analysis, then it changes the mathematical model and significantly decreases the TCV.


    Theoretical Cash Value


    Based on a mathematical model using RTP data published by online casinos, we’ll show you how to calculate the average return of casino play for each first deposit bonus offered by the top online casinos. ***This is an average based on theoretical math, so that means that some players will win more and some with lose more. This metric will be an absolute dollar amount of what you deposit plus how much bonus you received minus your average theoretical loss. Using this, you can compare bonuses based on an absolute dollar amount.


    THE STEP-BY-STEP EXPLANATION


    1. Go to our list of online casino deposit bonus codes to see how to claim each offer.

    2. Sign up using our referral link (we’ll receive a small compensation in some cases - using our links and codes is how you can help support our research & analysis - thank you!)

    3. Make your first deposit using the bonus code. In some cases, you do NOT need a code, that’s fine. If you make your first deposit and do not receive the bonus, make sure you email or call the casino’s customer service line ASAP. They can give “hand out” offers to players who have an issue getting the bonus they saw advertised.

    4. Once you have the cash and bonus balance in your account, you can start to play, but first.

    5. Remember the wagering requirement. You need to place anywhere from 1x-35x your bonus amount in wagers. That’s a lot of betting, so you’ll need to keep two things in mind

      1. Make small amount wagers. This is how you can get closest to the theoretical RTP that the game developer has built into the game. It’s a game of averages, so bet small - slow and steady.

      2. Only play on the highest RTP slots which meet the minimum RTP used in our analysis (97%). If the slot you’re playing does not meet the minimum, your ROI and Theoretical profit will be MUCH lower than you see in our mathematical model.

    6. Once you’ve met the wagering requirement and your restricted cash & bonus have converted to withdrawable cash, stop playing & cash out - your work here is done!


    Now we’ll use the BetMGM deposit bonus as an example:


    100% match up to $1,000


    COST: $1,000 Deposit


    BONUS: $1,000

    WAGERING REQUIREMENT: 15x Bonus Amount

    PLAYTHROUGH: $15,000 (Amount that must be wagered before cash can be withdrawn)

    MINIMUM GAME RTP: 97%

    GROSS WIN: $14,550

    GROSS LOSS: $450


    THEORETICAL NET WIN: $1,520

    THEORETICAL ROI: 152%

    THEORETICAL PROFIT: $520




    Figuring out when casinos and sportsbooks set up their wagering requirements & promotional terms to favor the player is exactly what we do here at OddsSeeker.


    Candidly, from our experience, we’ve seen a lot of the liability managers at online casinos simply be unaware of the exposure their bonus requirements have when setting promotional terms. And in some cases, they over-expose the casinos on purpose - in order to attract high-rollers, but either way - the bonuses are available to all new players, regardless of bankroll. 


    We pay attention to all of these terms and make it easy for players like you to figure out.



    Your “turnover” is the total amount of all your stakes (bets).


    how much you’ll deposit as your FIRST DEPOSIT ever at a new online casino. We will always use the minimum amount to receive the maximum bonus. If the offer says 100% match up to $1,000, that means you’ll need to deposit $1,000 to receive $1,000 in casino bonus.


    Sports Betting Strategies

    Want to bet like the best of them? Read these detailed strategies written by expert sports bettors to help you understand the sharpest ways to bet!
    5 Best Sports Betting Apps
    Live Sports Betting Guide
    MLB Live Betting Guide
    NBA Live Betting Guide
    NFL Live Betting Guide
    Soccer Live Betting Guide
    Stacking Promos
    Tennis Live Sports Guide

    Sports Betting Calculators

    The best bettors only strike wagers when they know their exact risk & exact reward - use these calculators to help yourself make the best bets.
    Parlay Calculator
    LuckyLand Slots #1 Trending - Redeem Prizes For Cash & More!
    LuckyLand Slots Free Signup Promo Get 7,777 Gold Coins + 10 FREE Sweeps Coins LuckyLand Slots First Purchase Offer 50,000 Gold Coins for $5 + 10 Free Sweeps Coins
    Fortune Coins ALL NEW - $8 FREE COINS!
    Fortune Coins Free Signup Promo Get $8 in FREE SWEEPS COINS Fortune Coins First Purchase Offer 1,000,000 Gold Coins + $40 of FREE Coins for your first purchase.
    Copy code
    CLAIM OFFER For New Players

    Get Free Bonuses Straight to Your Inbox

    13