Fading The Public Prize going against the grain? 'Fading the public' might be your ideal betting strategy.
✍️ Written by
Sep 29th 2023
What Does Fading The Public Mean in Sports Betting?
Fading the public refers to a sports betting strategy that entails betting against what the public considers to be prevailing common wisdom. This might sound counterintuitive and counterproductive, but the rationale behind fading the public is fairly straightforward; essentially, you’re betting aligned with the interests of the house. Regardless of what sports betting apps you're using - you can always easily see how to Fade the Public.
The house naturally has the slight betting edge; after all, they’re the ones who pre-set the terms and conditions of the game. Therefore, sometimes the most logical move is to not wager based on what the gambling public deems the most logical move.
Some instances where fading the public may be a logical move include:
Wagering on the under when the favorite (as it usually is) is overwhelmingly wagered on Wagering when the line is repositioned in a more neutral direction Wagering when there’s a big underdog that could potentially beat the odds to deliver a big payout This wagering strategy can apply across the board, and here’s how it translates across the board: Moneyline Bets: Wagering opposite of the favored winner. Over/Under Bets: Wagering opposite the prevailing point spread position, or betting on the underdog when bettors are overwhelmingly wagering the favorite. Middle Bets: Wagering an unpopular or unlikely middle. Parlay, Teaser, & Round Robin Bets: Placing multiple wagers contrary to dominant public opinion.
Of course, all of these terms are heavily contextual, and you shouldn’t just opt to make a contrarian public-fading bet based on these terms alone. However, when these conditions are right, these terms could potentially yield a considerable payout. Find out more about what fading the public entails through this comprehensive, in-depth guide on fading the public.
How Does Fading The Public Work?
We wish we could offer a simple yes-no answer here, but the reality of fading the public is far more complex and far less binary than that. The general gambling public has become a lot more keen on handicapping and the tactics that bookmakers deploy to handicap bets.
Likewise, the bookmakers have become more aware of the reality that the gambling public has become more aware of their tactics. So, unfortunately, fading the public is no longer as simple as betting opposite of the squares that the majority are betting on.
If you’re considering going against the grain of the gambling public’s majority opinion, here are a few other things you should consider before doing so:
Line movements: No written line movement is unchanging, static, or definitely hardline. In the case of live betting, sometimes lines evolve in real-time, mid-game! Depending on where they move, the opportunity to really fade the public well might emerge. Look for “steam moves”, or drastic line movements that open up this opportunity.
Human psychology: Very few people want to be seen as the buzzkills who are rooting for less eventful games. Furthermore, there are unlimited potentials for overs in a wager, but obviously limited potential with underdog wagers. It’s not difficult to see why most bettors would err on the side of wagering one way over the other, and how fading the public could challenge this common wisdom.
Risks: We cannot stress enough that fading the public is far from being as simple or straightforward a betting tactic as it used to be. So, as you should do with any wager, you should ensure that you thoroughly understand the risks associated with the wager you’re placing. Moreover, don’t risk more money than you’re comfortable risking, period!
Even professional sports bettors who are talented enough to make a living off the game still have to contend with heavy risk favors. Experts widely believe that professional bettors seldom sustain a long-term winning percentage that exceeds 53 or 54 percent. So, much like you, myself, or your average gambling Stephanie or Steve, even the best of the best have to contend with high risks if they want to potentially reap high rewards.
Before placing a bet against public opinion, keep those risk factors in mind, and make sure you’re fully comfortable with your decision before committing to it.
Is Fading The Public A Good Strategy?
Like we’ve emphasized before, your mileage may vary on whether or not fading the public is a valid wagering strategy. It’s success is undoubtedly less guaranteed than it was during the halcyon days of exclusively physical, brick and mortar sportsbook, but the right conditions could eventually lead to something special.
For your best chances at yielding a profitable fade, you should bet on widely popular events that generate the most public interest outside of the regular season, events like:
With these events, you can gauge public interest more effectively, line movements more effectively, and fade the public most effectively. For example, you’re not likely to see a lot of public fervor and favorite bets placed on a minor league baseball game, nor even a pre-season MLB game.
The World Series, on the other hand, will be sure to generate boatloads of hype and buzz. When following line movements for these big events, follow them across a multitude of sources, respectable, widely trusted sources like DraftKings, FanDuel, WynnBet, BetRivers, and others! You can learn more about the industry’s best online sportsbooks here.
Currently, Washington DC and only 14 states support legalized online sports betting markets around the country. These states include:
That said, thanks to a seminal 2018 Supreme Court ruling, sports betting is effectively legal across the entire country, in states which choose to facilitate legal online sportsbooks. It’s only a matter of time before this market expands and branches out to more states, and you won’t want to miss these exciting industry developments as they arise.
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